NHL report card: week of 2026-03-09 (2025-26)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
45.8%
hit rate
0.262
Brier score
22 of 48 decided
Season to date
52.8%
hit rate
0.252
Brier score
216 of 409 decided
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Canucks at IslandersNYI 64.2% pre-game — final NYI 1–VAN 2
- Maple Leafs at LightningTBL 63.1% pre-game — final TBL 2–TOR 3
- Kings at IslandersNYI 59.6% pre-game — final NYI 2–LAK 3
- Sharks at CanadiensMTL 59.3% pre-game — final MTL 2–SJS 4
- Panthers at CapitalsWSH 58.3% pre-game — final WSH 2–FLA 6
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Canucks at CapitalsWSH 64.0% pre-game — final WSH 4–VAN 1
- Flames at IslandersNYI 60.6% pre-game — final NYI 3–CGY 2
- Predators at IslandersNYI 60.1% pre-game — final NYI 6–NSH 3
- Sharks at SenatorsOTT 58.4% pre-game — final OTT 7–SJS 4
- Blues at JetsWPG 58.2% pre-game — final WPG 3–STL 2
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blues at Stars Mon, Mar 9 | DAL 56.3% · STL 43.7% | DAL 0–STL 4 | Miss |
| Bruins at Golden Knights Mon, Mar 9 | VGK 55.6% · BOS 44.4% | VGK 2–BOS 4 | Miss |
| Canadiens at Blue Jackets Mon, Mar 9 | CBJ 55.7% · MTL 44.3% | CBJ 4–MTL 5 | Miss |
| Panthers at Capitals Mon, Mar 9 | WSH 58.3% · FLA 41.7% | WSH 2–FLA 6 | Miss |
| Islanders at Canucks Mon, Mar 9 | VAN 51.0% · NYI 49.0% | VAN 7–NYI 3 | Hit |
| Utah Hockey Club at Flyers Tue, Mar 10 | PHI 56.3% · UTA 43.7% | PHI 3–UTA 2 | Hit |
| Lightning at Oilers Tue, Mar 10 | EDM 51.7% · TBL 48.3% | EDM 0–TBL 2 | Miss |
| Blackhawks at Sabres Tue, Mar 10 | BUF 56.3% · CHI 43.7% | BUF 5–CHI 4 | Hit |
| Predators at Islanders Tue, Mar 10 | NYI 60.1% · NSH 40.0% | NYI 6–NSH 3 | Hit |
| Canadiens at Devils Tue, Mar 10 | NJD 55.1% · MTL 44.9% | NJD 2–MTL 1 | Hit |
| Avalanche at Maple Leafs Tue, Mar 10 | TOR 47.1% · COL 52.9% | TOR 3–COL 1 | Miss |
| Penguins at Kings Tue, Mar 10 | LAK 56.3% · PIT 43.7% | LAK 4–PIT 3 | Hit |
| Islanders at Panthers Tue, Mar 10 | FLA 57.0% · NYI 43.0% | FLA 4–NYI 0 | Hit |
| Blue Jackets at Flames Tue, Mar 10 | CGY 54.2% · CBJ 45.8% | CGY 2–CBJ 5 | Miss |
| Hurricanes at Blues Tue, Mar 10 | STL 56.3% · CAR 43.7% | STL 3–CAR 4 | Miss |
| Golden Knights at Senators Wed, Mar 11 | OTT 57.4% · VGK 42.6% | OTT 2–VGK 1 | Hit |
| Utah Hockey Club at Wild Wed, Mar 11 | MIN 57.6% · UTA 42.4% | MIN 5–UTA 0 | Hit |
| Stars at Sharks Wed, Mar 11 | SJS 56.3% · DAL 43.7% | SJS 1–DAL 4 | Miss |
| Bruins at Red Wings Wed, Mar 11 | DET 55.9% · BOS 44.1% | DET 3–BOS 4 | Miss |
| Canucks at Capitals Wed, Mar 11 | WSH 64.0% · VAN 36.0% | WSH 4–VAN 1 | Hit |
| Maple Leafs at Lightning Wed, Mar 11 | TBL 63.1% · TOR 36.9% | TBL 2–TOR 3 | Miss |
| Predators at Devils Thu, Mar 12 | NJD 57.3% · NSH 42.8% | NJD 2–NSH 4 | Miss |
| Blue Jackets at Kings Thu, Mar 12 | LAK 54.0% · CBJ 46.0% | LAK 2–CBJ 1 | Hit |
| Canucks at Islanders Thu, Mar 12 | NYI 64.2% · VAN 35.8% | NYI 1–VAN 2 | Miss |
| Flames at Devils Thu, Mar 12 | NJD 57.8% · CGY 42.2% | NJD 4–CGY 5 | Miss |
| Bruins at Senators Fri, Mar 13 | OTT 54.4% · BOS 45.6% | OTT 7–BOS 2 | Hit |
| Panthers at Sharks Fri, Mar 13 | SJS 56.2% · FLA 43.8% | SJS 3–FLA 6 | Miss |
| Predators at Canucks Fri, Mar 13 | VAN 51.9% · NSH 48.1% | VAN 4–NSH 3 | Hit |
| Kings at Islanders Fri, Mar 13 | NYI 59.6% · LAK 40.4% | NYI 2–LAK 3 | Miss |
| Oilers at Blues Sat, Mar 14 | STL 51.7% · EDM 48.3% | STL 3–EDM 2 | Hit |
| Ducks at Senators Sat, Mar 14 | OTT 57.1% · ANA 42.9% | OTT 2–ANA 0 | Hit |
| Bruins at Capitals Sat, Mar 14 | WSH 55.8% · BOS 44.2% | WSH 2–BOS 3 | Miss |
| Avalanche at Jets Sat, Mar 14 | WPG 45.8% · COL 54.2% | WPG 3–COL 1 | Miss |
| Rangers at Wild Sat, Mar 14 | MIN 56.3% · NYR 43.7% | MIN 2–NYR 4 | Miss |
| Flames at Islanders Sat, Mar 14 | NYI 60.6% · CGY 39.4% | NYI 3–CGY 2 | Hit |
| Sharks at Canadiens Sat, Mar 14 | MTL 59.3% · SJS 40.8% | MTL 2–SJS 4 | Miss |
| Hurricanes at Lightning Sat, Mar 14 | TBL 56.3% · CAR 43.7% | TBL 2–CAR 4 | Miss |
| Kings at Devils Sat, Mar 14 | NJD 55.9% · LAK 44.1% | NJD 6–LAK 4 | Hit |
| Maple Leafs at Sabres Sat, Mar 14 | BUF 56.3% · TOR 43.7% | BUF 3–TOR 2 | Hit |
| Blue Jackets at Flyers Sat, Mar 14 | PHI 56.3% · CBJ 43.7% | PHI 1–CBJ 2 | Miss |
| Red Wings at Stars Sun, Mar 15 | DAL 56.3% · DET 43.7% | DAL 3–DET 2 | Hit |
| Penguins at Utah Hockey Club Sun, Mar 15 | UTA 56.3% · PIT 43.7% | UTA 3–PIT 4 | Miss |
| Blackhawks at Golden Knights Sun, Mar 15 | VGK 56.3% · CHI 43.7% | VGK 4–CHI 0 | Hit |
| Kraken at Canucks Sun, Mar 15 | VAN 56.3% · SEA 43.7% | VAN 2–SEA 5 | Miss |
| Blues at Jets Sun, Mar 15 | WPG 58.2% · STL 41.8% | WPG 3–STL 2 | Hit |
| Sharks at Senators Sun, Mar 15 | OTT 58.4% · SJS 41.6% | OTT 7–SJS 4 | Hit |
| Ducks at Canadiens Sun, Mar 15 | MTL 57.9% · ANA 42.1% | MTL 3–ANA 4 | Miss |
| Maple Leafs at Wild Sun, Mar 15 | MIN 56.3% · TOR 43.7% | MIN 2–TOR 4 | Miss |
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