Colorado Avalanche at Winnipeg Jets
Colorado Avalanche 54% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Avalanche:
- Offensive Efficiency. Avalanche offense (3.8 PPG) outpaces Jets (2.9 PPG)
- Recent Form. Avalanche (42-10) in better form than Jets (25-26)
- Defensive Efficiency. Avalanche defense (2.4 Opp PPG) better than Jets (3.0 Opp PPG)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: COL 50% (−4)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: COL 56% (+2)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: COL 50% (−4)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: COL 51% (−3)
Win probability movement
WPG home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Jets defeated the Avalanche 3-1.
Our model predicted the Avalanche would win with 54% confidence, but the Jets won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Avalanche and was a contributing factor: Avalanche offense (3.8 PPG) outpaces Jets (2.9 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Jets and was a contributing factor: Jets are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Recent Form favored the Avalanche and was a contributing factor: Avalanche (42-10) in better form than Jets (25-26)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Jets won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Colorado Avalanche
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Winnipeg Jets
- Recent FormFavors Colorado Avalanche
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Colorado Avalanche
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Avalanche
Jets
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Jets has a 46% win probability, while Avalanche has a 54% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Canada Life Centre in Winnipeg, MB.