Anaheim Ducks at Montreal Canadiens
Montreal Canadiens 58% to win. The biggest signal favoring Canadiens:
- Home Field Advantage. Canadiens are 0-0 at home this season
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: MTL 53% (−5)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: MTL 56% (−2)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: MTL 56% (−2)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: MTL 57% (−1)
Win probability movement
MTL home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Ducks defeated the Canadiens 4-3.
Our model predicted the Canadiens would win with 58% confidence, but the Ducks won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Canadiens and was a notable factor: Canadiens are 0-0 at home this season
- Offensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar offensive efficiency (3.5 vs 3.3 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar defensive efficiency (3.3 vs 3.5 Opp PPG)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Ducks won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Montreal Canadiens
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Ducks
Canadiens
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Canadiens has a 58% win probability, while Ducks has a 42% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Bell Centre in Montreal, QC.