Vancouver Canucks at New York Islanders
New York Islanders 64% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Islanders:
- Home Field Advantage. Islanders are 0-0 at home this season
- Defensive Efficiency. Islanders defense (2.8 Opp PPG) better than Canucks (3.7 Opp PPG)
- Recent Form. Islanders (35-23) in better form than Canucks (19-36)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: NYI 58% (−6)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: NYI 59% (−5)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: NYI 59% (−5)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: NYI 61% (−3)
Win probability movement
NYI home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Canucks defeated the Islanders 2-1.
Our model predicted the Islanders would win with 64% confidence, but the Canucks won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Islanders and was a notable factor: Islanders are 0-0 at home this season
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Islanders and was a contributing factor: Islanders defense (2.8 Opp PPG) better than Canucks (3.7 Opp PPG)
- Recent Form favored the Islanders and was a contributing factor: Islanders (35-23) in better form than Canucks (19-36)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Canucks won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors New York Islanders
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors New York Islanders
- Recent FormFavors New York Islanders
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors New York Islanders
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Canucks
Islanders
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Islanders has a 64% win probability, while Canucks has a 36% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at KeyBank Center in Buffalo, NY.