Toronto Maple Leafs at Tampa Bay Lightning
Tampa Bay Lightning 63% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Lightning:
- Home Field Advantage. Lightning are 0-0 at home this season
- Defensive Efficiency. Lightning defense (2.7 Opp PPG) better than Maple Leafs (3.5 Opp PPG)
- Recent Form. Lightning (38-18) in better form than Maple Leafs (27-25)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: TBL 57% (−6)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: TBL 59% (−4)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: TBL 59% (−4)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: TBL 60% (−3)
Win probability movement
TBL home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Maple Leafs defeated the Lightning 3-2.
Our model predicted the Lightning would win with 63% confidence, but the Maple Leafs won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Lightning and was a notable factor: Lightning are 0-0 at home this season
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Lightning and was a contributing factor: Lightning defense (2.7 Opp PPG) better than Maple Leafs (3.5 Opp PPG)
- Recent Form favored the Lightning and was a contributing factor: Lightning (38-18) in better form than Maple Leafs (27-25)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Maple Leafs won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Tampa Bay Lightning
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Tampa Bay Lightning
- Recent FormFavors Tampa Bay Lightning
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Maple Leafs
Lightning
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Lightning has a 63% win probability, while Maple Leafs has a 37% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, ON.