Vegas Golden Knights at Ottawa Senators
Ottawa Senators 57% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Senators:
- Home Field Advantage. Senators are 0-0 at home this season
- Rest Days. Senators rest advantage (4 days rest) over Golden Knights (11 days rest)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: OTT 53% (−4)
- If the rest edge were neutral: OTT 56% (−1)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: OTT 56% (−1)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: OTT 57% (0)
Win probability movement
OTT home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Senators defeated the Golden Knights 2-1.
Our model predicted the Senators would win with 57% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Senators and was a notable factor: Senators are 0-0 at home this season
- Rest Days favored the Senators and was a contributing factor: Senators rest advantage (4 days rest) over Golden Knights (11 days rest)
- Recent Form was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar form: Senators (30-22) vs Golden Knights (29-20)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Senators won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Ottawa Senators
- Rest DaysFavors Ottawa Senators
- Recent FormNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Golden Knights
Senators
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Senators has a 57% win probability, while Golden Knights has a 43% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at American Airlines Center in Dallas, TX.