Calgary Flames at New Jersey Devils
New Jersey Devils 58% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Devils:
- Home Field Advantage. Devils are 0-0 at home this season
- Recent Form. Devils (31-29) in better form than Flames (24-30)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: NJD 53% (−5)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: NJD 56% (−2)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: NJD 57% (−1)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: NJD 57% (−1)
Win probability movement
NJD home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Flames defeated the Devils 5-4.
Our model predicted the Devils would win with 58% confidence, but the Flames won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Devils and was a notable factor: Devils are 0-0 at home this season
- Recent Form favored the Devils and was a contributing factor: Devils (31-29) in better form than Flames (24-30)
- Offensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar offensive efficiency (2.5 vs 2.4 PPG)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Flames won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors New Jersey Devils
- Recent FormFavors New Jersey Devils
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Flames
Devils
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Devils has a 58% win probability, while Flames has a 42% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Prudential Center in Newark, NJ.