Montreal Canadiens at Columbus Blue Jackets
Columbus Blue Jackets 56% to win. The biggest signal favoring Blue Jackets:
- Home Field Advantage. Blue Jackets are 0-0 at home this season
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: CBJ 51% (−5)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: CBJ 56% (0)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: CBJ 55% (−1)
- If the rest edge were neutral: CBJ 55% (−1)
Win probability movement
CBJ home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Canadiens defeated the Blue Jackets 5-4.
Our model predicted the Blue Jackets would win with 56% confidence, but the Canadiens won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Blue Jackets and was a notable factor: Blue Jackets are 0-0 at home this season
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Canadiens and was a contributing factor: Canadiens offense (3.5 PPG) outpaces Blue Jackets (3.1 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar defensive efficiency (3.1 vs 3.3 Opp PPG)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Canadiens won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Columbus Blue Jackets
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Montreal Canadiens
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Canadiens
Blue Jackets
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Blue Jackets has a 56% win probability, while Canadiens has a 44% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Nationwide Arena in Columbus, OH.