New York Islanders at Vancouver Canucks
Vancouver Canucks 51% to win. The biggest signal favoring Canucks:
- Home Field Advantage. Canucks are 0-0 at home this season
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: VAN 47% (−4)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: VAN 53% (+2)
- If the rest edge were neutral: VAN 53% (+2)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: VAN 52% (+1)
Win probability movement
VAN home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Canucks defeated the Islanders 7-3.
Our model predicted the Canucks would win with 51% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Canucks and was a notable factor: Canucks are 0-0 at home this season
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Islanders and was a contributing factor: Rangers defense (3.1 Opp PPG) better than Canucks (3.7 Opp PPG)
- Rest Days favored the Islanders and was a contributing factor: Rangers rest advantage (2 days rest) over Canucks (11 days rest)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Canucks won by a solid margin
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Vancouver Canucks
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors New York Islanders
- Rest DaysFavors New York Islanders
- Recent FormFavors New York Islanders
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Islanders
Canucks
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Canucks has a 51% win probability, while Islanders has a 49% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Capital One Arena in Washington, DC.