Toronto Maple Leafs at Minnesota Wild
Minnesota Wild 56% to win. The biggest signal favoring Wild:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: MIN 52% (−4)
Win probability movement
MIN home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
Make Your Prediction
View leaderboard to see rankings
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Maple Leafs defeated the Wild 4-2.
Our model predicted the Wild would win with 56% confidence, but the Maple Leafs won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Wild and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Head to Head was neutral and a contributing factor: No recent head-to-head history available
- Recent Form was neutral and a contributing factor: No recent form data available
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Maple Leafs won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Minnesota Wild
- Head to HeadNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Maple Leafs
Wild
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Wild has a 56% win probability, while Maple Leafs has a 44% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Grand Casino Arena in Saint Paul, MN.