Montreal Canadiens at New Jersey Devils
New Jersey Devils 55% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Devils:
- Home Field Advantage. New Jersey Devils are 0-0 at home this season
- Rest Days. New Jersey Devils rest advantage (2 days rest) over Canadiens (1 day rest)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: NJD 51% (−4)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: NJD 58% (+3)
- If the rest edge were neutral: NJD 53% (−2)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: NJD 54% (−1)
Win probability movement
NJD home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Devils defeated the Canadiens 2-1.
Our model predicted the Devils would win with 55% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Devils and was a notable factor: New Jersey Devils are 0-0 at home this season
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Canadiens and was a contributing factor: Canadiens offense (3.5 PPG) outpaces New Jersey Devils (2.5 PPG)
- Rest Days favored the Devils and was a contributing factor: New Jersey Devils rest advantage (2 days rest) over Canadiens (1 day rest)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Devils won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors New Jersey Devils
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Montreal Canadiens
- Rest DaysFavors New Jersey Devils
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Canadiens
Devils
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Devils has a 55% win probability, while Canadiens has a 45% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at TD Garden in Boston, MA.