Colorado Avalanche at Toronto Maple Leafs
Colorado Avalanche 53% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Avalanche:
- Defensive Efficiency. Avalanche defense (2.4 Opp PPG) better than Maple Leafs (3.5 Opp PPG)
- Recent Form. Avalanche (42-10) in better form than Maple Leafs (27-25)
- Offensive Efficiency. Avalanche offense (3.8 PPG) outpaces Maple Leafs (3.2 PPG)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: COL 55% (+2)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: COL 48% (−5)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: COL 49% (−4)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: COL 50% (−3)
Win probability movement
TOR home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Maple Leafs defeated the Avalanche 3-1.
Our model predicted the Avalanche would win with 53% confidence, but the Maple Leafs won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Maple Leafs and was a notable factor: Maple Leafs are 0-0 at home this season
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Avalanche and was a contributing factor: Avalanche defense (2.4 Opp PPG) better than Maple Leafs (3.5 Opp PPG)
- Recent Form favored the Avalanche and was a contributing factor: Avalanche (42-10) in better form than Maple Leafs (27-25)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Maple Leafs won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Toronto Maple Leafs
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Colorado Avalanche
- Recent FormFavors Colorado Avalanche
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Colorado Avalanche
- Rest DaysFavors Toronto Maple Leafs
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Avalanche
Maple Leafs
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Maple Leafs has a 47% win probability, while Avalanche has a 53% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Bell Centre in Montreal, QC.