St. Louis Blues at Winnipeg Jets
Winnipeg Jets 58% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Jets:
- Home Field Advantage. Jets are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Defensive Efficiency. Jets defense (3.0 Opp PPG) better than Blues (3.4 Opp PPG)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: WPG 54% (−4)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: WPG 56% (−2)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: WPG 56% (−2)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: WPG 57% (−1)
Win probability movement
WPG home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Jets defeated the Blues 3-2.
Our model predicted the Jets would win with 58% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Jets and was a contributing factor: Jets are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Jets and was a contributing factor: Jets defense (3.0 Opp PPG) better than Blues (3.4 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar offensive efficiency (2.9 vs 2.6 PPG)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Jets won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Winnipeg Jets
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Winnipeg Jets
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Blues
Jets
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Jets has a 58% win probability, while Blues has a 42% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Canada Life Centre in Winnipeg, MB.