Tampa Bay Lightning at Edmonton Oilers
Edmonton Oilers 52% to win. The biggest signal favoring Oilers:
- Home Field Advantage. Oilers are 0-0 at home this season
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: EDM 48% (−4)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: EDM 54% (+2)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: EDM 54% (+2)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: EDM 52% (0)
Win probability movement
EDM home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Lightning defeated the Oilers 2-0.
Our model predicted the Oilers would win with 52% confidence, but the Lightning won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Oilers and was a notable factor: Oilers are 0-0 at home this season
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Lightning and was a contributing factor: Tampa Bay Lightning defense (2.7 Opp PPG) better than Oilers (3.4 Opp PPG)
- Recent Form favored the Lightning and was a contributing factor: Tampa Bay Lightning (38-18) in better form than Oilers (30-25)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Lightning won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Edmonton Oilers
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Tampa Bay Lightning
- Recent FormFavors Tampa Bay Lightning
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Lightning
Oilers
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Oilers has a 52% win probability, while Lightning has a 48% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Rogers Arena in Vancouver, BC.