Calgary Flames at New York Islanders
New York Islanders 61% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Islanders:
- Home Field Advantage. Islanders are 0-0 at home this season
- Recent Form. Islanders (35-23) in better form than Flames (24-30)
- Offensive Efficiency. Islanders offense (2.9 PPG) outpaces Flames (2.4 PPG)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: NYI 55% (−6)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: NYI 58% (−3)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: NYI 58% (−3)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: NYI 59% (−2)
Win probability movement
NYI home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Islanders defeated the Flames 3-2.
Our model predicted the Islanders would win with 61% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Islanders and was a notable factor: Islanders are 0-0 at home this season
- Recent Form favored the Islanders and was a contributing factor: Islanders (35-23) in better form than Flames (24-30)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Islanders and was a contributing factor: Islanders offense (2.9 PPG) outpaces Flames (2.4 PPG)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Islanders won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors New York Islanders
- Recent FormFavors New York Islanders
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors New York Islanders
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Flames
Islanders
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Islanders has a 61% win probability, while Flames has a 39% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at UBS Arena in Elmont, NY.