NHL weekly recap: week of 2026-03-30 (2025-26)
Hit rate this week: 60% across 55 games; season-to-date: 53%. Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as model accuracy.
Biggest upset
The model's favorite lost at 72% — final COL 6–VAN 8
- Recent Form (favors COL)
- Defensive Efficiency (favors COL)
- Offensive Efficiency (favors COL)
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Penguins at Islanders Mon, Mar 30 | NYI 56% • PIT 44% | NYI 3–PIT 8 | Miss |
| Flames at Avalanche Tue, Mar 31 | COL 68% • CGY 32% | COL 9–CGY 2 | Hit |
| Blues at Sharks Tue, Mar 31 | SJS 59% • STL 41% | SJS 5–STL 4 | Hit |
| Maple Leafs at Ducks Tue, Mar 31 | ANA 58% • TOR 42% | ANA 4–TOR 5 | Miss |
| Canucks at Golden Knights Tue, Mar 31 | VGK 61% • VAN 39% | VGK 4–VAN 2 | Hit |
| Canadiens at Lightning Tue, Mar 31 | TBL 60% • MTL 40% | TBL 1–MTL 4 | Miss |
| Islanders at Sabres Tue, Mar 31 | BUF 58% • NYI 42% | BUF 4–NYI 3 | Hit |
| Senators at Panthers Tue, Mar 31 | FLA 53% • OTT 47% | FLA 6–OTT 3 | Hit |
| Devils at Rangers Tue, Mar 31 | NYR 56% • NJD 44% | NYR 4–NJD 1 | Hit |
| Stars at Bruins Tue, Mar 31 | BOS 56% • DAL 44% | BOS 6–DAL 3 | Hit |
| Flyers at Capitals Tue, Mar 31 | WSH 56% • PHI 44% | WSH 6–PHI 4 | Hit |
| Red Wings at Penguins Tue, Mar 31 | PIT 55% • DET 45% | PIT 5–DET 1 | Hit |
| Hurricanes at Blue Jackets Tue, Mar 31 | CBJ 56% • CAR 44% | CBJ 2–CAR 5 | Miss |
| Jets at Blackhawks Wed, Apr 1 | CHI 56% • WPG 44% | CHI 3–WPG 4 | Miss |
| Kraken at Oilers Wed, Apr 1 | EDM 56% • SEA 44% | EDM 3–SEA 0 | Hit |
| Canucks at Avalanche Thu, Apr 2 | COL 72% • VAN 28% | COL 6–VAN 8 | Miss |
| Ducks at Sharks Thu, Apr 2 | SJS 55% • ANA 45% | SJS 4–ANA 3 | Hit |
| Blues at Kings Thu, Apr 2 | LAK 60% • STL 40% | LAK 2–STL 1 | Hit |
| Canadiens at Rangers Thu, Apr 2 | NYR 56% • MTL 44% | NYR 2–MTL 3 | Miss |
| Sabres at Senators Thu, Apr 2 | OTT 56% • BUF 44% | OTT 4–BUF 1 | Hit |
| Red Wings at Flyers Thu, Apr 2 | PHI 56% • DET 44% | PHI 2–DET 4 | Miss |
| Blue Jackets at Hurricanes Thu, Apr 2 | CAR 56% • CBJ 44% | CAR 5–CBJ 1 | Hit |
| Bruins at Panthers Thu, Apr 2 | FLA 52% • BOS 48% | FLA 2–BOS 1 | Hit |
| Penguins at Lightning Thu, Apr 2 | TBL 56% • PIT 44% | TBL 6–PIT 3 | Hit |
| Capitals at Devils Thu, Apr 2 | NJD 54% • WSH 46% | NJD 7–WSH 3 | Hit |
| Canucks at Wild Fri, Apr 3 | MIN 63% • VAN 37% | MIN 5–VAN 2 | Hit |
| Jets at Stars Fri, Apr 3 | DAL 58% • WPG 42% | DAL 3–WPG 0 | Hit |
| Blackhawks at Oilers Fri, Apr 3 | EDM 56% • CHI 44% | EDM 3–CHI 1 | Hit |
| Maple Leafs at Sharks Fri, Apr 3 | SJS 55% • TOR 45% | SJS 4–TOR 1 | Hit |
| Utah Hockey Club at Kraken Fri, Apr 3 | SEA 57% • UTA 43% | SEA 2–UTA 6 | Miss |
| Flames at Golden Knights Fri, Apr 3 | VGK 59% • CGY 41% | VGK 6–CGY 3 | Hit |
| Predators at Kings Fri, Apr 3 | LAK 56% • NSH 44% | LAK 4–NSH 5 | Miss |
| Flyers at Islanders Fri, Apr 3 | NYI 58% • PHI 42% | NYI 1–PHI 4 | Miss |
| Blues at Ducks Sat, Apr 4 | ANA 60% • STL 40% | ANA 2–STL 6 | Miss |
| Red Wings at Rangers Sat, Apr 4 | NYR 56% • DET 44% | NYR 4–DET 1 | Hit |
| Wild at Senators Sat, Apr 4 | OTT 56% • MIN 44% | OTT 1–MIN 4 | Miss |
| Avalanche at Stars Sat, Apr 4 | DAL 55% • COL 45% | DAL 0–COL 2 | Miss |
| Panthers at Penguins Sat, Apr 4 | PIT 56% • FLA 44% | PIT 9–FLA 4 | Hit |
| Bruins at Lightning Sat, Apr 4 | TBL 60% • BOS 40% | TBL 3–BOS 1 | Hit |
| Islanders at Hurricanes Sat, Apr 4 | CAR 58% • NYI 42% | CAR 4–NYI 3 | Hit |
| Maple Leafs at Kings Sat, Apr 4 | LAK 56% • TOR 44% | LAK 7–TOR 6 | Hit |
| Utah Hockey Club at Canucks Sat, Apr 4 | VAN 47% • UTA 53% | VAN 4–UTA 7 | Hit |
| Jets at Blue Jackets Sat, Apr 4 | CBJ 60% • WPG 40% | CBJ 1–WPG 2 | Miss |
| Canadiens at Devils Sat, Apr 4 | NJD 52% • MTL 48% | NJD 3–MTL 4 | Miss |
| Sabres at Capitals Sat, Apr 4 | WSH 55% • BUF 45% | WSH 6–BUF 2 | Hit |
| Predators at Sharks Sun, Apr 5 | SJS 59% • NSH 41% | SJS 3–NSH 6 | Miss |
| Flames at Ducks Sun, Apr 5 | ANA 57% • CGY 43% | ANA 3–CGY 5 | Miss |
| Blackhawks at Kraken Sun, Apr 5 | SEA 56% • CHI 44% | SEA 2–CHI 4 | Miss |
| Golden Knights at Oilers Sun, Apr 5 | EDM 55% • VGK 45% | EDM 1–VGK 5 | Miss |
| Wild at Red Wings Sun, Apr 5 | DET 56% • MIN 44% | DET 4–MIN 5 | Miss |
| Panthers at Penguins Sun, Apr 5 | PIT 56% • FLA 44% | PIT 5–FLA 2 | Hit |
| Bruins at Flyers Sun, Apr 5 | PHI 62% • BOS 38% | PHI 2–BOS 1 | Hit |
| Hurricanes at Senators Sun, Apr 5 | OTT 62% • CAR 38% | OTT 6–CAR 3 | Hit |
| Capitals at Rangers Sun, Apr 5 | NYR 56% • WSH 44% | NYR 8–WSH 1 | Hit |
| Devils at Canadiens Sun, Apr 5 | MTL 59% • NJD 41% | MTL 0–NJD 3 | Miss |