NBA weekly recap: week of 2026-03-23 (2025-26)
Hit rate this week: 76% across 55 games; season-to-date: 69%. Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as model accuracy.
Biggest upset
The model's favorite lost at 89% — final ORL 126–IND 128
- Defensive Efficiency (favors ORL)
- Offensive Efficiency (favors ORL)
- Recent Form (favors ORL)
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Timberwolves at Celtics Mon, Mar 23 | BOS 64% • MIN 36% | BOS 92–MIN 102 | Miss |
| Raptors at Suns Mon, Mar 23 | PHX 52% • TOR 48% | PHX 120–TOR 98 | Hit |
| Thunder at 76ers Mon, Mar 23 | PHI 20% • OKC 80% | PHI 103–OKC 123 | Hit |
| Spurs at Heat Mon, Mar 23 | MIA 37% • SAS 63% | MIA 111–SAS 136 | Hit |
| Lakers at Pistons Mon, Mar 23 | DET 79% • LAL 21% | DET 113–LAL 110 | Hit |
| Pacers at Magic Mon, Mar 23 | ORL 89% • IND 11% | ORL 126–IND 128 | Miss |
| Grizzlies at Hawks Mon, Mar 23 | ATL 74% • MEM 26% | ATL 146–MEM 107 | Hit |
| Rockets at Bulls Tue, Mar 24 | CHI 35% • HOU 65% | CHI 132–HOU 124 | Miss |
| Raptors at Jazz Tue, Mar 24 | UTA 40% • TOR 60% | UTA 127–TOR 143 | Hit |
| Warriors at Mavericks Tue, Mar 24 | DAL 32% • GSW 68% | DAL 131–GSW 137 | Hit |
| Nets at Trail Blazers Tue, Mar 24 | POR 75% • BKN 25% | POR 134–BKN 99 | Hit |
| Bucks at Clippers Tue, Mar 24 | LAC 76% • MIL 24% | LAC 129–MIL 96 | Hit |
| Kings at Hornets Tue, Mar 24 | CHA 90% • SAC 10% | CHA 134–SAC 90 | Hit |
| Pelicans at Knicks Tue, Mar 24 | NYK 83% • NOP 17% | NYK 121–NOP 116 | Hit |
| Magic at Cavaliers Wed, Mar 25 | CLE 70% • ORL 30% | CLE 136–ORL 131 | Hit |
| Nuggets at Suns Wed, Mar 25 | PHX 52% • DEN 48% | PHX 123–DEN 125 | Miss |
| Lakers at Pacers Wed, Mar 25 | IND 15% • LAL 85% | IND 130–LAL 137 | Hit |
| Hawks at Pistons Wed, Mar 25 | DET 79% • ATL 21% | DET 129–ATL 130 | Miss |
| Bulls at 76ers Wed, Mar 25 | PHI 73% • CHI 27% | PHI 157–CHI 137 | Hit |
| Heat at Cavaliers Wed, Mar 25 | CLE 54% • MIA 46% | CLE 103–MIA 120 | Miss |
| Thunder at Celtics Wed, Mar 25 | BOS 40% • OKC 60% | BOS 119–OKC 109 | Miss |
| Spurs at Grizzlies Thu, Mar 26 | MEM 19% • SAS 81% | MEM 98–SAS 123 | Hit |
| Wizards at Jazz Thu, Mar 26 | UTA 56% • WSH 44% | UTA 110–WSH 133 | Miss |
| Rockets at Timberwolves Thu, Mar 26 | MIN 55% • HOU 45% | MIN 110–HOU 108 | Hit |
| Nets at Warriors Thu, Mar 26 | GSW 82% • BKN 18% | GSW 109–BKN 106 | Hit |
| Mavericks at Nuggets Thu, Mar 26 | DEN 80% • DAL 20% | DEN 142–DAL 135 | Hit |
| Bucks at Trail Blazers Thu, Mar 26 | POR 71% • MIL 29% | POR 130–MIL 99 | Hit |
| Raptors at Clippers Thu, Mar 26 | LAC 48% • TOR 52% | LAC 119–TOR 94 | Miss |
| Pelicans at Pistons Thu, Mar 26 | DET 85% • NOP 15% | DET 129–NOP 108 | Hit |
| Knicks at Hornets Thu, Mar 26 | CHA 46% • NYK 54% | CHA 114–NYK 103 | Miss |
| Kings at Magic Thu, Mar 26 | ORL 89% • SAC 11% | ORL 121–SAC 117 | Hit |
| Clippers at Pacers Fri, Mar 27 | IND 24% • LAC 76% | IND 113–LAC 114 | Hit |
| Hawks at Celtics Fri, Mar 27 | BOS 69% • ATL 31% | BOS 109–ATL 102 | Hit |
| Heat at Cavaliers Fri, Mar 27 | CLE 62% • MIA 38% | CLE 149–MIA 128 | Hit |
| Bulls at Thunder Sat, Mar 28 | OKC 88% • CHI 12% | OKC 131–CHI 113 | Hit |
| Rockets at Grizzlies Sat, Mar 28 | MEM 37% • HOU 63% | MEM 109–HOU 119 | Hit |
| Pelicans at Raptors Sat, Mar 28 | TOR 75% • NOP 25% | TOR 119–NOP 106 | Hit |
| Jazz at Nuggets Sat, Mar 28 | DEN 87% • UTA 13% | DEN 135–UTA 129 | Hit |
| Wizards at Warriors Sat, Mar 28 | GSW 56% • WSH 44% | GSW 131–WSH 126 | Hit |
| Mavericks at Trail Blazers Sat, Mar 28 | POR 71% • DAL 29% | POR 93–DAL 100 | Miss |
| Nets at Lakers Sat, Mar 28 | LAL 83% • BKN 17% | LAL 116–BKN 99 | Hit |
| Spurs at Bucks Sat, Mar 28 | MIL 16% • SAS 84% | MIL 95–SAS 127 | Hit |
| Pistons at Timberwolves Sat, Mar 28 | MIN 39% • DET 61% | MIN 87–DET 109 | Hit |
| 76ers at Hornets Sat, Mar 28 | CHA 71% • PHI 29% | CHA 114–PHI 118 | Miss |
| Kings at Hawks Sat, Mar 28 | ATL 89% • SAC 11% | ATL 123–SAC 113 | Hit |
| Bulls at Grizzlies Sun, Mar 29 | MEM 61% • CHI 39% | MEM 125–CHI 124 | Hit |
| Jazz at Suns Sun, Mar 29 | PHX 67% • UTA 33% | PHX 134–UTA 109 | Hit |
| Clippers at Bucks Sun, Mar 29 | MIL 34% • LAC 66% | MIL 113–LAC 127 | Hit |
| Heat at Pacers Sun, Mar 29 | IND 18% • MIA 82% | IND 135–MIA 118 | Miss |
| Kings at Nets Sun, Mar 29 | BKN 66% • SAC 34% | BKN 116–SAC 99 | Hit |
| Magic at Raptors Sun, Mar 29 | TOR 58% • ORL 42% | TOR 139–ORL 87 | Hit |
| Celtics at Hornets Sun, Mar 29 | CHA 41% • BOS 59% | CHA 99–BOS 114 | Hit |
| Wizards at Trail Blazers Sun, Mar 29 | POR 56% • WSH 44% | POR 123–WSH 88 | Hit |
| Rockets at Pelicans Sun, Mar 29 | NOP 34% • HOU 66% | NOP 102–HOU 134 | Hit |
| Knicks at Thunder Sun, Mar 29 | OKC 73% • NYK 27% | OKC 111–NYK 100 | Hit |