NHL weekly recap: week of 2026-03-09 (2025-26)
Hit rate this week: 46% across 48 games; season-to-date: 53%. Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as model accuracy.
Biggest upset
The model's favorite lost at 64% — final NYI 1–VAN 2
- Home Field Advantage (favors NYI)
- Defensive Efficiency (favors NYI)
- Recent Form (favors NYI)
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Blues at Stars Mon, Mar 9 | DAL 56% • STL 44% | DAL 0–STL 4 | Miss |
| Bruins at Golden Knights Mon, Mar 9 | VGK 56% • BOS 44% | VGK 2–BOS 4 | Miss |
| Canadiens at Blue Jackets Mon, Mar 9 | CBJ 56% • MTL 44% | CBJ 4–MTL 5 | Miss |
| Panthers at Capitals Mon, Mar 9 | WSH 58% • FLA 42% | WSH 2–FLA 6 | Miss |
| Islanders at Canucks Mon, Mar 9 | VAN 51% • NYI 49% | VAN 7–NYI 3 | Hit |
| Utah Hockey Club at Flyers Tue, Mar 10 | PHI 56% • UTA 44% | PHI 3–UTA 2 | Hit |
| Lightning at Oilers Tue, Mar 10 | EDM 52% • TBL 48% | EDM 0–TBL 2 | Miss |
| Blackhawks at Sabres Tue, Mar 10 | BUF 56% • CHI 44% | BUF 5–CHI 4 | Hit |
| Predators at Islanders Tue, Mar 10 | NYI 60% • NSH 40% | NYI 6–NSH 3 | Hit |
| Canadiens at Devils Tue, Mar 10 | NJD 55% • MTL 45% | NJD 2–MTL 1 | Hit |
| Avalanche at Maple Leafs Tue, Mar 10 | TOR 47% • COL 53% | TOR 3–COL 1 | Miss |
| Penguins at Kings Tue, Mar 10 | LAK 56% • PIT 44% | LAK 4–PIT 3 | Hit |
| Islanders at Panthers Tue, Mar 10 | FLA 57% • NYI 43% | FLA 4–NYI 0 | Hit |
| Blue Jackets at Flames Tue, Mar 10 | CGY 54% • CBJ 46% | CGY 2–CBJ 5 | Miss |
| Hurricanes at Blues Tue, Mar 10 | STL 56% • CAR 44% | STL 3–CAR 4 | Miss |
| Golden Knights at Senators Wed, Mar 11 | OTT 57% • VGK 43% | OTT 2–VGK 1 | Hit |
| Utah Hockey Club at Wild Wed, Mar 11 | MIN 58% • UTA 42% | MIN 5–UTA 0 | Hit |
| Stars at Sharks Wed, Mar 11 | SJS 56% • DAL 44% | SJS 1–DAL 4 | Miss |
| Bruins at Red Wings Wed, Mar 11 | DET 56% • BOS 44% | DET 3–BOS 4 | Miss |
| Canucks at Capitals Wed, Mar 11 | WSH 64% • VAN 36% | WSH 4–VAN 1 | Hit |
| Maple Leafs at Lightning Wed, Mar 11 | TBL 63% • TOR 37% | TBL 2–TOR 3 | Miss |
| Predators at Devils Thu, Mar 12 | NJD 57% • NSH 43% | NJD 2–NSH 4 | Miss |
| Blue Jackets at Kings Thu, Mar 12 | LAK 54% • CBJ 46% | LAK 2–CBJ 1 | Hit |
| Canucks at Islanders Thu, Mar 12 | NYI 64% • VAN 36% | NYI 1–VAN 2 | Miss |
| Flames at Devils Thu, Mar 12 | NJD 58% • CGY 42% | NJD 4–CGY 5 | Miss |
| Bruins at Senators Fri, Mar 13 | OTT 54% • BOS 46% | OTT 7–BOS 2 | Hit |
| Panthers at Sharks Fri, Mar 13 | SJS 56% • FLA 44% | SJS 3–FLA 6 | Miss |
| Predators at Canucks Fri, Mar 13 | VAN 52% • NSH 48% | VAN 4–NSH 3 | Hit |
| Kings at Islanders Fri, Mar 13 | NYI 60% • LAK 40% | NYI 2–LAK 3 | Miss |
| Oilers at Blues Sat, Mar 14 | STL 52% • EDM 48% | STL 3–EDM 2 | Hit |
| Ducks at Senators Sat, Mar 14 | OTT 57% • ANA 43% | OTT 2–ANA 0 | Hit |
| Bruins at Capitals Sat, Mar 14 | WSH 56% • BOS 44% | WSH 2–BOS 3 | Miss |
| Avalanche at Jets Sat, Mar 14 | WPG 46% • COL 54% | WPG 3–COL 1 | Miss |
| Rangers at Wild Sat, Mar 14 | MIN 56% • NYR 44% | MIN 2–NYR 4 | Miss |
| Flames at Islanders Sat, Mar 14 | NYI 61% • CGY 39% | NYI 3–CGY 2 | Hit |
| Sharks at Canadiens Sat, Mar 14 | MTL 59% • SJS 41% | MTL 2–SJS 4 | Miss |
| Hurricanes at Lightning Sat, Mar 14 | TBL 56% • CAR 44% | TBL 2–CAR 4 | Miss |
| Kings at Devils Sat, Mar 14 | NJD 56% • LAK 44% | NJD 6–LAK 4 | Hit |
| Maple Leafs at Sabres Sat, Mar 14 | BUF 56% • TOR 44% | BUF 3–TOR 2 | Hit |
| Blue Jackets at Flyers Sat, Mar 14 | PHI 56% • CBJ 44% | PHI 1–CBJ 2 | Miss |
| Red Wings at Stars Sun, Mar 15 | DAL 56% • DET 44% | DAL 3–DET 2 | Hit |
| Penguins at Utah Hockey Club Sun, Mar 15 | UTA 56% • PIT 44% | UTA 3–PIT 4 | Miss |
| Blackhawks at Golden Knights Sun, Mar 15 | VGK 56% • CHI 44% | VGK 4–CHI 0 | Hit |
| Kraken at Canucks Sun, Mar 15 | VAN 56% • SEA 44% | VAN 2–SEA 5 | Miss |
| Blues at Jets Sun, Mar 15 | WPG 58% • STL 42% | WPG 3–STL 2 | Hit |
| Sharks at Senators Sun, Mar 15 | OTT 58% • SJS 42% | OTT 7–SJS 4 | Hit |
| Ducks at Canadiens Sun, Mar 15 | MTL 58% • ANA 42% | MTL 3–ANA 4 | Miss |
| Maple Leafs at Wild Sun, Mar 15 | MIN 56% • TOR 44% | MIN 2–TOR 4 | Miss |