MLB weekly recap: week of 2026-08-03 (2026)
Hit rate this week: 58% across 64 games; season-to-date: 54%. Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as model accuracy.
Biggest upset
The model's favorite lost at 57% — final SD 3–HOU 6
- Home Field Advantage (favors SD)
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nationals at Phillies Mon, Aug 3 | PHI 52% • WSH 48% | PHI 6–WSH 3 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Yankees Mon, Aug 3 | NYY 55% • STL 45% | NYY 7–STL 13 | Miss |
| Pirates at Brewers Mon, Aug 3 | MIL 56% • PIT 44% | MIL 3–PIT 4 | Miss |
| Giants at Rangers Tue, Aug 4 | TEX 54% • SF 46% | TEX 1–SF 5 | Miss |
| Dodgers at Cubs Tue, Aug 4 | CHC 55% • LAD 45% | CHC 10–LAD 5 | Hit |
| Blue Jays at Astros Tue, Aug 4 | HOU 54% • TOR 46% | HOU 1–TOR 3 | Miss |
| Rays at Rockies Tue, Aug 4 | COL 55% • TB 45% | COL 9–TB 13 | Miss |
| Padres at Diamondbacks Tue, Aug 4 | ARI 52% • SD 48% | ARI 5–SD 1 | Hit |
| Angels at Orioles Tue, Aug 4 | BAL 55% • LAA 45% | BAL 3–LAA 1 | Hit |
| Athletics at Reds Tue, Aug 4 | CIN 55% • OAK 45% | CIN 5–OAK 4 | Hit |
| Mets at Guardians Tue, Aug 4 | CLE 55% • NYM 45% | CLE 2–NYM 6 | Miss |
| Nationals at Phillies Tue, Aug 4 | PHI 52% • WSH 48% | PHI 5–WSH 0 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Yankees Tue, Aug 4 | NYY 55% • STL 45% | NYY 2–STL 0 | Hit |
| Chicago White Sox at Red Sox Tue, Aug 4 | BOS 53% • CWS 47% | BOS 14–CWS 2 | Hit |
| Marlins at Braves Tue, Aug 4 | ATL 55% • MIA 45% | ATL 4–MIA 2 | Hit |
| Pirates at Brewers Tue, Aug 4 | MIL 56% • PIT 44% | MIL 4–PIT 2 | Hit |
| Twins at Royals Tue, Aug 4 | KC 54% • MIN 46% | KC 8–MIN 2 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Cubs Wed, Aug 5 | CHC 55% • LAD 45% | CHC 5–LAD 1 | Hit |
| Giants at Rangers Wed, Aug 5 | TEX 54% • SF 46% | TEX 5–SF 4 | Hit |
| Blue Jays at Astros Wed, Aug 5 | HOU 54% • TOR 46% | HOU 7–TOR 2 | Hit |
| Rays at Rockies Wed, Aug 5 | COL 55% • TB 45% | COL 7–TB 9 | Miss |
| Padres at Diamondbacks Wed, Aug 5 | ARI 52% • SD 48% | ARI 4–SD 9 | Miss |
| Tigers at Mariners Wed, Aug 5 | SEA 55% • DET 45% | SEA 0–DET 8 | Miss |
| Blue Jays at Astros Wed, Aug 5 | HOU 54% • TOR 46% | HOU 4–TOR 5 | Miss |
| Dodgers at Cubs Wed, Aug 5 | CHC 55% • LAD 45% | CHC 7–LAD 6 | Hit |
| Giants at Rangers Wed, Aug 5 | TEX 54% • SF 46% | TEX 6–SF 0 | Hit |
| Rays at Rockies Wed, Aug 5 | COL 55% • TB 45% | COL 0–TB 4 | Miss |
| Angels at Orioles Wed, Aug 5 | BAL 55% • LAA 45% | BAL 5–LAA 2 | Hit |
| Nationals at Phillies Wed, Aug 5 | PHI 52% • WSH 48% | PHI 4–WSH 10 | Miss |
| Athletics at Reds Wed, Aug 5 | CIN 55% • OAK 45% | CIN 3–OAK 2 | Hit |
| Mets at Guardians Wed, Aug 5 | CLE 55% • NYM 45% | CLE 5–NYM 6 | Miss |
| Cardinals at Yankees Wed, Aug 5 | NYY 55% • STL 45% | NYY 1–STL 3 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Red Sox Wed, Aug 5 | BOS 54% • CWS 46% | BOS 4–CWS 0 | Hit |
| Marlins at Braves Wed, Aug 5 | ATL 55% • MIA 45% | ATL 4–MIA 1 | Hit |
| Pirates at Brewers Wed, Aug 5 | MIL 56% • PIT 44% | MIL 4–PIT 2 | Hit |
| Twins at Royals Wed, Aug 5 | KC 54% • MIN 46% | KC 2–MIN 1 | Hit |
| Tigers at Mariners Thu, Aug 6 | SEA 55% • DET 45% | SEA 4–DET 2 | Hit |
| Padres at Diamondbacks Thu, Aug 6 | ARI 52% • SD 48% | ARI 10–SD 4 | Hit |
| Angels at Orioles Thu, Aug 6 | BAL 55% • LAA 45% | BAL 1–LAA 4 | Miss |
| Athletics at Reds Thu, Aug 6 | CIN 55% • OAK 45% | CIN 6–OAK 5 | Hit |
| Mets at Guardians Thu, Aug 6 | CLE 55% • NYM 45% | CLE 6–NYM 13 | Miss |
| Pirates at Brewers Thu, Aug 6 | MIL 56% • PIT 44% | MIL 5–PIT 2 | Hit |
| Blue Jays at Cubs Thu, Aug 6 | CHC 54% • TOR 46% | CHC 3–TOR 2 | Hit |
| Tigers at Mariners Thu, Aug 6 | SEA 55% • DET 45% | SEA 0–DET 11 | Miss |
| Nationals at Phillies Thu, Aug 6 | PHI 52% • WSH 48% | PHI 7–WSH 3 | Hit |
| Chicago White Sox at Red Sox Thu, Aug 6 | BOS 56% • CWS 44% | BOS 12–CWS 11 | Hit |
| Marlins at Braves Thu, Aug 6 | ATL 55% • MIA 45% | ATL 11–MIA 3 | Hit |
| Twins at Royals Thu, Aug 6 | KC 54% • MIN 46% | KC 3–MIN 4 | Miss |
| Padres at Diamondbacks Fri, Aug 7 | ARI 52% • SD 48% | ARI 1–SD 5 | Miss |
| Mets at Pirates Fri, Aug 7 | PIT 56% • NYM 44% | PIT 4–NYM 6 | Miss |
| Blue Jays at Phillies Fri, Aug 7 | PHI 52% • TOR 48% | PHI 4–TOR 5 | Miss |
| Reds at Nationals Fri, Aug 7 | WSH 57% • CIN 43% | WSH 5–CIN 3 | Hit |
| Braves at Yankees Fri, Aug 7 | NYY 55% • ATL 45% | NYY 3–ATL 2 | Hit |
| Athletics at Red Sox Fri, Aug 7 | BOS 54% • OAK 46% | BOS 13–OAK 1 | Hit |
| Angels at Marlins Fri, Aug 7 | MIA 56% • LAA 44% | MIA 3–LAA 4 | Miss |
| Twins at Brewers Fri, Aug 7 | MIL 56% • MIN 44% | MIL 6–MIN 8 | Miss |
| Guardians at Chicago White Sox Fri, Aug 7 | CWS 55% • CLE 45% | CWS 2–CLE 8 | Miss |
| Cubs at Royals Sat, Aug 8 | KC 55% • CHC 45% | KC 4–CHC 6 | Miss |
| Orioles at Rangers Sat, Aug 8 | TEX 56% • BAL 44% | TEX 2–BAL 1 | Hit |
| Rockies at Cardinals Sat, Aug 8 | STL 53% • COL 47% | STL 3–COL 2 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Diamondbacks Sat, Aug 8 | ARI 55% • LAD 45% | ARI 4–LAD 3 | Hit |
| Astros at Padres Sat, Aug 8 | SD 57% • HOU 43% | SD 3–HOU 6 | Miss |
| Rays at Mariners Sat, Aug 8 | SEA 54% • TB 46% | SEA 1–TB 2 | Miss |
| Tigers at Giants Sat, Aug 8 | SF 56% • DET 44% | SF 5–DET 2 | Hit |