NBA report card: week of 2026-10-19 (2026-27)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
62.5%
hit rate
0.270
Brier score
20 of 32 decided
Season to date
62.5%
hit rate
0.270
Brier score
20 of 32 decided
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Mavericks at PacersIND 89.6% pre-game — final IND 105–DAL 121
- Thunder at SpursSAS 89.5% pre-game — final SAS 104–OKC 116
- Bulls at BucksMIL 85.8% pre-game — final MIL 125–CHI 132
- Celtics at PistonsBOS 77.8% pre-game — final DET 121–BOS 113
- Pelicans at JazzNOP 77.0% pre-game — final UTA 120–NOP 119
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Timberwolves at MagicMIN 87.0% pre-game — final ORL 93–MIN 115
- Raptors at WizardsTOR 86.4% pre-game — final WSH 102–TOR 112
- Grizzlies at WarriorsMEM 86.2% pre-game — final GSW 108–MEM 111
- Trail Blazers at KingsPOR 86.1% pre-game — final SAC 120–POR 128
- Rockets at SpursHOU 83.0% pre-game — final SAS 110–HOU 114
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Celtics at Pistons Tue, Oct 20 | DET 22.2% · BOS 77.8% | DET 121–BOS 113 | Miss |
| 76ers at Knicks Tue, Oct 20 | NYK 41.6% · PHI 58.4% | NYK 100–PHI 106 | Hit |
| Thunder at Spurs Wed, Oct 21 | SAS 89.5% · OKC 10.5% | SAS 104–OKC 116 | Miss |
| Hawks at Magic Wed, Oct 21 | ORL 42.0% · ATL 58.0% | ORL 125–ATL 132 | Hit |
| Bucks at Wizards Wed, Oct 21 | WSH 40.0% · MIL 60.0% | WSH 128–MIL 116 | Miss |
| Bulls at Raptors Wed, Oct 21 | TOR 71.2% · CHI 28.8% | TOR 135–CHI 92 | Hit |
| Timberwolves at Heat Wed, Oct 21 | MIA 62.8% · MIN 37.2% | MIA 106–MIN 131 | Miss |
| Hornets at Nets Wed, Oct 21 | BKN 71.1% · CHA 28.9% | BKN 103–CHA 110 | Miss |
| Jazz at Grizzlies Thu, Oct 22 | MEM 64.0% · UTA 35.9% | MEM 123–UTA 103 | Hit |
| Pacers at Pelicans Thu, Oct 22 | NOP 74.9% · IND 25.1% | NOP 120–IND 123 | Miss |
| Mavericks at Rockets Thu, Oct 22 | HOU 70.3% · DAL 29.7% | HOU 128–DAL 110 | Hit |
| Suns at Trail Blazers Thu, Oct 22 | POR 56.3% · PHX 43.7% | POR 124–PHX 83 | Hit |
| Warriors at Lakers Thu, Oct 22 | LAL 65.0% · GSW 35.0% | LAL 127–GSW 105 | Hit |
| Kings at Clippers Thu, Oct 22 | LAC 57.5% · SAC 42.5% | LAC 121–SAC 96 | Hit |
| Cavaliers at 76ers Thu, Oct 22 | PHI 50.2% · CLE 49.8% | PHI 114–CLE 106 | Hit |
| Nuggets at Thunder Fri, Oct 23 | OKC 48.3% · DEN 51.7% | OKC 96–DEN 84 | Miss |
| Bulls at Bucks Fri, Oct 23 | MIL 85.8% · CHI 14.2% | MIL 125–CHI 132 | Miss |
| Timberwolves at Magic Fri, Oct 23 | ORL 13.0% · MIN 87.0% | ORL 93–MIN 115 | Hit |
| Mavericks at Pacers Fri, Oct 23 | IND 89.6% · DAL 10.4% | IND 105–DAL 121 | Miss |
| Raptors at Wizards Fri, Oct 23 | WSH 13.6% · TOR 86.4% | WSH 102–TOR 112 | Hit |
| Hawks at Hornets Fri, Oct 23 | CHA 34.3% · ATL 65.7% | CHA 81–ATL 128 | Hit |
| Knicks at Celtics Fri, Oct 23 | BOS 53.8% · NYK 46.2% | BOS 107–NYK 103 | Hit |
| Pistons at Heat Sat, Oct 24 | MIA 17.4% · DET 82.6% | MIA 111–DET 128 | Hit |
| Rockets at Spurs Sat, Oct 24 | SAS 17.0% · HOU 83.0% | SAS 110–HOU 114 | Hit |
| Pelicans at Jazz Sat, Oct 24 | UTA 23.0% · NOP 77.0% | UTA 120–NOP 119 | Miss |
| Grizzlies at Warriors Sat, Oct 24 | GSW 13.8% · MEM 86.2% | GSW 108–MEM 111 | Hit |
| Clippers at Lakers Sat, Oct 24 | LAL 71.8% · LAC 28.2% | LAL 125–LAC 117 | Hit |
| Trail Blazers at Kings Sat, Oct 24 | SAC 14.0% · POR 86.1% | SAC 120–POR 128 | Hit |
| Heat at Hornets Sat, Oct 24 | CHA 40.0% · MIA 60.0% | CHA 115–MIA 110 | Miss |
| Bucks at 76ers Sat, Oct 24 | PHI 50.7% · MIL 49.3% | PHI 127–MIL 116 | Hit |
| Nets at Cavaliers Sat, Oct 24 | CLE 60.0% · BKN 40.0% | CLE 125–BKN 121 | Hit |
| Spurs at Mavericks Sun, Oct 25 | DAL 55.5% · SAS 44.5% | DAL 106–SAS 122 | Miss |
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