Oklahoma City Thunder at San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio Spurs 89% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Spurs:
- Defensive Efficiency. Spurs defense (108.8 Opp PPG) better than Thunder (117.0 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency. Spurs offense (114.4 PPG) outpaces Thunder (109.8 PPG)
- Injuries. Spurs healthier: 2 out, 0 doubtful vs Thunder 3 out, 0 doubtful
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Thunder defeated the Spurs 116-104.
Our model predicted the Spurs would win with 89% confidence, but the Thunder pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Spurs and was a major factor: Spurs defense (108.8 Opp PPG) better than Thunder (117.0 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Spurs and was a major factor: Spurs offense (114.4 PPG) outpaces Thunder (109.8 PPG)
- Injuries favored the Spurs and was a notable factor: Spurs healthier: 2 out, 0 doubtful vs Thunder 3 out, 0 doubtful
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Spurs have 2 player(s) ruled out, while the Thunder have 3.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Thunder won comfortably
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors San Antonio Spurs
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors San Antonio Spurs
- InjuriesFavors San Antonio Spurs
- Home Field AdvantageFavors San Antonio Spurs
- ELO RatingNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities
Spurs
Thunder
Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Spurs defense (108.8 Opp PPG) better than Thunder (117.0 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency
Spurs offense (114.4 PPG) outpaces Thunder (109.8 PPG)
Turnover Differential
Spurs turnover differential (+0) vs Thunder (+0)
1 factor
Home Field Advantage
Spurs are 2-1 at home this season; Thunder are 0-2 on the road
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Injury Report
Spurs
Thunder
Key Players
Thunder
Spurs
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Spurs has a 89% win probability, while Thunder has a 11% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, TX.