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Houston Rockets at San Antonio Spurs

NBAregular • 2026-27 Season
Live
Spurs logo
Spurs
San Antonio
50
vs
Rockets logo
Rockets
Houston
54
SAS 17%83% HOU
Prediction Confidence:
Moderate

Houston Rockets 83% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Rockets:

  • Defensive Efficiency. Rockets defense (110.0 Opp PPG) better than Spurs (116.0 Opp PPG)
  • Offensive Efficiency. Rockets offense (128.0 PPG) outpaces Spurs (104.0 PPG)
  • Injuries. Rockets healthier: 1 out, 0 doubtful vs Spurs 2 out, 0 doubtful

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VenueMoody Center
Austin, TX

Team Comparison

Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs

Rockets (away)
Spurs (home)
83%
Win probability
17%
2
High-impact factors
0
1
Players ruled out
2

Game Preview

Rockets at Spurs

The Rockets visit the Spurs at Moody Center in Austin, TX in 2027-2028 NBA regular play.

Our model gives the Rockets a 83% chance of winning, signaling a strong lean in this matchup. For the Spurs to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.

Key factors driving this prediction:

  • Defensive Efficiency favors the Rockets (high): Rockets defense (110.0 Opp PPG) better than Spurs (116.0 Opp PPG)
  • Offensive Efficiency favors the Rockets (high): Rockets offense (128.0 PPG) outpaces Spurs (104.0 PPG)
  • Injuries favors the Rockets (low): Rockets healthier: 1 out, 0 doubtful vs Spurs 2 out, 0 doubtful
  • Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Spurs have 2 player(s) ruled out, while the Rockets have 1.
Rockets83%

is strongly favored to win

Key Factor
Defensive Efficiency
Favors HOU

Key Factors

What's driving the win probability for this game

  • Defensive EfficiencyFavors Houston Rockets
  • Offensive EfficiencyFavors Houston Rockets
  • InjuriesFavors Houston Rockets
  • ELO RatingFavors San Antonio Spurs
  • Home Field AdvantageNeutral
  • Turnover DifferentialNeutral
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What's Driving This Game

Each factor's contribution to the final win probability

HOU
SAS
Defensive Efficiency
Offensive Efficiency
Injuries
ELO Rating
Home Field Advantage
Favours HOU|Favours SAS

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Model vs. Market

Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities

Spurs

Our Model17%

Rockets

Our Model83%

Understanding the win probability calculation

Defensive Efficiency

Rockets defense (110.0 Opp PPG) better than Spurs (116.0 Opp PPG)

Rockets

Offensive Efficiency

Rockets offense (128.0 PPG) outpaces Spurs (104.0 PPG)

Rockets

Turnover Differential

Spurs turnover differential (+0) vs Rockets (+0)

Neutral

1 factor not shown (insufficient data)

Model version: 1.1.0 • Calculated: 10/24/2026, 1:15:01 AM

Spurs

Tobias HarrisF(Calf)
OUT
Jayden QuaintanceF(Knee)
OUT

Rockets

Reed SheppardG(Knee)
OUT

Key Players

Rockets

Quadir CopelandG
Reed SheppardGOUT
-4.0% win prob impact
Amen ThompsonG
Fred VanVleetG
Sean PedullaG

Spurs

Devin VassellG
Dylan HarperG
Stephon CastleG
Ja'Kobi GillespieG
De'Aaron FoxG

Learn About Our Analysis

Learn about the factors behind our predictions

Guide

NBA Win Probability

How we calculate NBA game outcome probabilities

4 min readRead article
Deep Dive

Back-to-Back Fatigue

How schedule and rest affect NBA game outcomes

3 min readRead article

Frequently Asked Questions

Spurs has a 17% win probability, while Rockets has a 83% win probability based on our analysis.

Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.

This game is being played at Moody Center in Austin, TX.

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