NBA2026-27 season
Dallas Mavericks vs Houston Rockets
Head-to-head win probability for NBA. Next meeting when one is scheduled, otherwise the most recent game. This season's results use the last pre-kickoff number.
Next meeting
Fri, Oct 30, 2026
This season
2026-27 meetings. Pre-kickoff win probability and the result.
Model record on this matchup
Graded on the last pre-kickoff win probability, the same rule as the accuracy page. Preseason excluded.
Hit rate
100%
1 of 1 decided games
Meetings graded
1
2026-27
Correct calls
1
Favorite won
Factor comparison
Each team's top factors from this page's featured meeting.
Dallas Mavericks
- Defensive Efficiency — Mavericks defense (116.5 Opp PPG) better than Jazz (121.0 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency — Mavericks offense (115.5 PPG) outpaces Jazz (111.5 PPG)
- ELO Rating — Mavericks ELO 1423 vs Jazz ELO 1370 (diff: +53)
Houston Rockets
- Defensive Efficiency — Rockets defense (110.0 Opp PPG) better than Suns (124.0 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency — Rockets offense (121.0 PPG) outpaces Suns (83.0 PPG)
- ELO Rating — Suns ELO 1485 vs Rockets ELO 1565 (diff: -81)
Get the weekly model report card
Every Monday: last week's hit rate, Brier score, and the model's biggest misses. One email a week.