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New Orleans Pelicans at Utah Jazz

NBAregular • 2026-27 Season
Scheduled
Jazz logo
Jazz
Utah
62
vs
Pelicans logo
Pelicans
New Orleans
52
UTA 24%76% NOP
Prediction Confidence:
Moderate

New Orleans Pelicans 76% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Pelicans:

  • Offensive Efficiency. Pelicans offense (120.0 PPG) outpaces Jazz (103.0 PPG)
  • Injuries. Pelicans healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Jazz 2 out, 0 doubtful
  • ELO Rating. Jazz ELO 1366 vs Pelicans ELO 1440 (diff: -74)

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VenueDelta Center
Salt Lake City, UT

Team Comparison

Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs

Pelicans (away)
Jazz (home)
76%
Win probability
24%
2
High-impact factors
0
0
Players ruled out
2

Game Preview

Pelicans at Jazz

The Pelicans visit the Jazz at Delta Center in Salt Lake City, UT in 2027-2028 NBA regular play.

Our model gives the Pelicans a 76% chance of winning, signaling a strong lean in this matchup. For the Jazz to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.

Key factors driving this prediction:

  • Offensive Efficiency favors the Pelicans (high): Pelicans offense (120.0 PPG) outpaces Jazz (103.0 PPG)
  • Injuries favors the Pelicans (high): Pelicans healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Jazz 2 out, 0 doubtful
  • ELO Rating favors the Pelicans (low): Jazz ELO 1366 vs Pelicans ELO 1440 (diff: -74)
  • The Jazz are without 2 player(s) due to injury, which could tilt the matchup.
Pelicans76%

is strongly favored to win

Key Factor
Offensive Efficiency
Favors NOP

Key Factors

What's driving the win probability for this game

  • Offensive EfficiencyFavors New Orleans Pelicans
  • InjuriesFavors New Orleans Pelicans
  • ELO RatingFavors New Orleans Pelicans
  • Home Field AdvantageFavors Utah Jazz
  • Turnover DifferentialNeutral
  • Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
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What's Driving This Game

Each factor's contribution to the final win probability

NOP
UTA
Offensive Efficiency
Injuries
ELO Rating
Home Field Advantage
Favours NOP|Favours UTA

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Model vs. Market

Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities

Jazz

Our Model24%

Pelicans

Our Model76%

Understanding the win probability calculation

Offensive Efficiency

Pelicans offense (120.0 PPG) outpaces Jazz (103.0 PPG)

Pelicans

Turnover Differential

Jazz turnover differential (+0) vs Pelicans (+0)

Neutral

Defensive Efficiency

Similar defensive efficiency (123.0 vs 123.0 Opp PPG)

Neutral

Injuries

Pelicans healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Jazz 2 out, 0 doubtful

Pelicans

1 factor not shown (insufficient data)

Model version: 1.1.0 • Calculated: 10/24/2026, 3:00:16 AM

Jazz

Jusuf NurkicC(Foot)
OUT
Trey AlexanderG(Knee)
OUT

Pelicans

Yves MissiC(Knee)
QUESTIONABLE

Key Players

Pelicans

AJ JohnsonG
Jeremiah FearsG
Bennedict MathurinG
Bryce McGowensG
Dejounte MurrayG

Jazz

Josh OkogieG
Trey AlexanderGOUT
-5.1% win prob impact
Tamar BatesG
Terrell Brown Jr.G
Ace BaileyG

Learn About Our Analysis

Learn about the factors behind our predictions

Guide

NBA Win Probability

How we calculate NBA game outcome probabilities

4 min readRead article
Deep Dive

Back-to-Back Fatigue

How schedule and rest affect NBA game outcomes

3 min readRead article

Frequently Asked Questions

Jazz has a 24% win probability, while Pelicans has a 76% win probability based on our analysis.

Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.

This game is being played at Delta Center in Salt Lake City, UT.

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