PlayDecoded
Menu

Miami Heat at Charlotte Hornets

NBAregular • 2026-27 Season
Scheduled
Hornets logo
Hornets
Charlotte
0
vs
Heat logo
Heat
Miami
0
CHA 72%28% MIA
Prediction Confidence:
Moderate

Charlotte Hornets 72% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Hornets:

  • Defensive Efficiency. Hornets defense (103.0 Opp PPG) better than Heat (131.0 Opp PPG)
  • Offensive Efficiency. Hornets offense (110.0 PPG) outpaces Heat (106.0 PPG)
  • Home Field Advantage. Hornets are 1-2 at home this season; Heat are 1-1 on the road (divisional game, reduced advantage)

Make Your Prediction

Sign in to make predictions

View leaderboard to see rankings

VenueSpectrum Center
Charlotte, NC

Team Comparison

Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs

Heat (away)
Hornets (home)
28%
Win probability
72%
1
High-impact factors
2
0
Players ruled out
4

Game Preview

Heat at Hornets

The Heat visit the Hornets at Spectrum Center in Charlotte, NC in 2027-2028 NBA regular play.

Our model gives the Hornets a 72% chance of winning, signaling a strong lean in this matchup. For the Heat to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.

Key factors driving this prediction:

  • Defensive Efficiency favors the Hornets (high): Hornets defense (103.0 Opp PPG) better than Heat (131.0 Opp PPG)
  • Injuries favors the Heat (high): Heat healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Hornets 4 out, 0 doubtful
  • Offensive Efficiency favors the Hornets (high): Hornets offense (110.0 PPG) outpaces Heat (106.0 PPG)
  • The Hornets are without 4 player(s) due to injury, which could tilt the matchup.
Hornets72%

is strongly favored to win

Key Factor
Defensive Efficiency
Favors CHA

Key Factors

What's driving the win probability for this game

  • Defensive EfficiencyFavors Charlotte Hornets
  • InjuriesFavors Miami Heat
  • Offensive EfficiencyFavors Charlotte Hornets
  • Home Field AdvantageFavors Charlotte Hornets
  • ELO RatingFavors Charlotte Hornets
  • Head to HeadNeutral
Sign in to see factor scores, charts, and what-if simulations

What's Driving This Game

Each factor's contribution to the final win probability

MIA
CHA
Defensive Efficiency
Injuries
Offensive Efficiency
Home Field Advantage
ELO Rating
Favours MIA|Favours CHA

Premium feature: factor breakdown

Start 14-day free trial →

Model vs. Market

Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities

Hornets

Our Model72%

Heat

Our Model28%

Understanding the win probability calculation

Defensive Efficiency

Hornets defense (103.0 Opp PPG) better than Heat (131.0 Opp PPG)

Hornets

Offensive Efficiency

Hornets offense (110.0 PPG) outpaces Heat (106.0 PPG)

Hornets

Turnover Differential

Hornets turnover differential (+0) vs Heat (+0)

Neutral

Injuries

Heat healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Hornets 4 out, 0 doubtful

Heat

1 factor not shown (insufficient data)

Model version: 1.1.0 • Calculated: 10/24/2026, 3:00:09 AM

Hornets

Grant WilliamsF(Hamstring)
OUT
Coby WhiteG(Calf)
OUT
Kon KnueppelG(Hamstring)
OUT
Kylan BoswellG(Knee)
OUT

Heat

No injuries reported

Key Players

Heat

Klay ThompsonG
Tim Hardaway Jr.G
Pelle LarssonG
Dru SmithG
Davion MitchellG

Hornets

Sion JamesG
Kon KnueppelGOUT
0.0% win prob impact
Liam McNeeleyG
Coby WhiteGOUT
0.0% win prob impact
Pat ConnaughtonG

Learn About Our Analysis

Learn about the factors behind our predictions

Guide

NBA Win Probability

How we calculate NBA game outcome probabilities

4 min readRead article
Deep Dive

Back-to-Back Fatigue

How schedule and rest affect NBA game outcomes

3 min readRead article

Frequently Asked Questions

Hornets has a 72% win probability, while Heat has a 28% win probability based on our analysis.

Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.

This game is being played at Spectrum Center in Charlotte, NC.

View all NBA games