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San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks

NBAregular • 2026-27 Season
Scheduled
Mavericks logo
Mavericks
Dallas
0
vs
Spurs logo
Spurs
San Antonio
0
DAL 31%69% SAS
Prediction Confidence:
Moderate

San Antonio Spurs 69% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Spurs:

  • Defensive Efficiency. Spurs defense (116.0 Opp PPG) better than Mavericks (128.0 Opp PPG)
  • Injuries. Spurs healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Mavericks 6 out, 0 doubtful
  • ELO Rating. Mavericks ELO 1400 vs Spurs ELO 1606 (diff: -205)

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Team Comparison

Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs

Spurs (away)
Mavericks (home)
69%
Win probability
31%
2
High-impact factors
1
0
Players ruled out
6

Game Preview

Spurs at Mavericks

The Spurs visit the Mavericks at American Airlines Center in Dallas, TX in 2027-2028 NBA regular play.

Our model gives the Spurs a 69% chance of winning, giving them a clear but not overwhelming advantage. For the Mavericks to win, several key factors would need to swing their way.

Key factors driving this prediction:

  • Defensive Efficiency favors the Spurs (high): Spurs defense (116.0 Opp PPG) better than Mavericks (128.0 Opp PPG)
  • Offensive Efficiency favors the Mavericks (high): Mavericks offense (110.0 PPG) outpaces Spurs (104.0 PPG)
  • Injuries favors the Spurs (high): Spurs healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Mavericks 6 out, 0 doubtful
  • The Mavericks are without 6 player(s) due to injury, which could tilt the matchup.
Spurs69%

is strongly favored to win

Key Factor
Defensive Efficiency
Favors SAS

Key Factors

What's driving the win probability for this game

  • Defensive EfficiencyFavors San Antonio Spurs
  • Offensive EfficiencyFavors Dallas Mavericks
  • InjuriesFavors San Antonio Spurs
  • ELO RatingFavors San Antonio Spurs
  • Home Field AdvantageFavors Dallas Mavericks
  • Rest DaysFavors San Antonio Spurs
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What's Driving This Game

Each factor's contribution to the final win probability

SAS
DAL
Defensive Efficiency
Offensive Efficiency
Injuries
ELO Rating
Home Field Advantage
Rest Days
Favours SAS|Favours DAL

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Model vs. Market

Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities

Mavericks

Our Model31%

Spurs

Our Model69%

Understanding the win probability calculation

Defensive Efficiency

Spurs defense (116.0 Opp PPG) better than Mavericks (128.0 Opp PPG)

Spurs

Offensive Efficiency

Mavericks offense (110.0 PPG) outpaces Spurs (104.0 PPG)

Mavericks

Turnover Differential

Mavericks turnover differential (+0) vs Spurs (+0)

Neutral

Injuries

Spurs healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Mavericks 6 out, 0 doubtful

Spurs

1 factor not shown (insufficient data)

Model version: 1.1.0 • Calculated: 10/24/2026, 3:00:13 AM

Mavericks

Dereck Lively IIC(Foot)
OUT
Cooper FlaggF(Shoulder)
OUT
Caleb MartinF(Thumb)
OUT
Santi AldamaF(Knee)
OUT
Tarik BiberovicF(Heel)
OUT
Jett HowardG(Calf)
OUT

Spurs

No injuries reported

Key Players

Spurs

Dylan HarperG
Taelon PeterG
Stephon CastleG
De'Aaron FoxG
Devin VassellG

Mavericks

Kyrie IrvingG
John PoulakidasG
Seth LundyG
Jett HowardGOUT
0.0% win prob impact
Max ChristieG

Learn About Our Analysis

Learn about the factors behind our predictions

Guide

NBA Win Probability

How we calculate NBA game outcome probabilities

4 min readRead article
Deep Dive

Back-to-Back Fatigue

How schedule and rest affect NBA game outcomes

3 min readRead article

Frequently Asked Questions

Mavericks has a 31% win probability, while Spurs has a 69% win probability based on our analysis.

Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.

This game is being played at American Airlines Center in Dallas, TX.

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