Milwaukee Bucks at Washington Wizards
Milwaukee Bucks 60% to win. The biggest signal favoring Bucks:
- Injuries. Bucks healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Wizards 3 out, 0 doubtful
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Wizards defeated the Bucks 128-116.
Our model predicted the Bucks would win with 60% confidence, but the Wizards pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Injuries favored the Bucks and was a major factor: Bucks healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Wizards 3 out, 0 doubtful
- Home Field Advantage favored the Wizards and was a contributing factor: Wizards are 1-1 at home this season; Bucks are 2-1 on the road
- ELO Rating was neutral and a contributing factor: Wizards ELO 1384 vs Bucks ELO 1377 (diff: +7)
- The Wizards are without 3 player(s) due to injury, which could tilt the matchup.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Wizards won comfortably
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- InjuriesFavors Milwaukee Bucks
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Washington Wizards
- ELO RatingNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities
Wizards
Bucks
Odds by Source
| Source | Wizards | Bucks | Spread | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada | -225 | +185 | -5.5 | 238.5 |
| DraftKings | -120 | -110 | -1.5 | 226.5 |
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries
Bucks healthier: 0 out, 0 doubtful vs Wizards 3 out, 0 doubtful
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Injury Report
Wizards
Bucks
No injuries reported
Key Players
Bucks
Wizards
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Wizards has a 40% win probability, while Bucks has a 60% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Capital One Arena in Washington, DC.