Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder
Denver Nuggets 52% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Nuggets:
- Defensive Efficiency. Nuggets defense (0.0 Opp PPG) better than Thunder (104.0 Opp PPG)
- Injuries. Nuggets healthier: 2 out, 0 doubtful vs Thunder 3 out, 0 doubtful
- Rest Days. Nuggets rest advantage (5 days rest) over Thunder (1 day rest)
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Thunder defeated the Nuggets 96-84.
Our model predicted the Nuggets would win with 52% confidence, but the Thunder pulled off the upset. These outcomes are what keep sports compelling -- and help our model learn.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Thunder and was a major factor: Thunder offense (116.0 PPG) outpaces Nuggets (0.0 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Nuggets and was a major factor: Nuggets defense (0.0 Opp PPG) better than Thunder (104.0 Opp PPG)
- Injuries favored the Nuggets and was a notable factor: Nuggets healthier: 2 out, 0 doubtful vs Thunder 3 out, 0 doubtful
- Both teams are dealing with injuries -- the Thunder have 3 player(s) ruled out, while the Nuggets have 2.
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Thunder won comfortably
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Oklahoma City Thunder
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Denver Nuggets
- InjuriesFavors Denver Nuggets
- ELO RatingFavors Oklahoma City Thunder
- Rest DaysFavors Denver Nuggets
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Oklahoma City Thunder
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities
Thunder
Nuggets
Understanding the win probability calculation
Offensive Efficiency
Thunder offense (116.0 PPG) outpaces Nuggets (0.0 PPG)
Defensive Efficiency
Nuggets defense (0.0 Opp PPG) better than Thunder (104.0 Opp PPG)
Turnover Differential
Thunder turnover differential (+0) vs Nuggets (+0)
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1 factor
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1 factor
Other
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Injury Report
Thunder
Nuggets
Key Players
Nuggets
Thunder
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Thunder has a 48% win probability, while Nuggets has a 52% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City, OK.