NBA report card: week of 2026-04-06 (2025-26)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
73.1%
hit rate
0.165
Brier score
38 of 52 decided
Season to date
69.1%
hit rate
0.195
Brier score
273 of 395 decided
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Warriors at KingsGSW 80.3% pre-game — final SAC 124–GSW 118
- Pistons at MagicDET 73.1% pre-game — final ORL 123–DET 107
- Hornets at KnicksNYK 67.3% pre-game — final NYK 96–CHA 110
- Bucks at NetsMIL 61.9% pre-game — final BKN 96–MIL 90
- Grizzlies at JazzMEM 61.5% pre-game — final UTA 147–MEM 101
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Mavericks at SpursSAS 90.0% pre-game — final SAS 139–DAL 120
- Bucks at PistonsDET 90.0% pre-game — final DET 137–MIL 111
- Pistons at PacersDET 88.8% pre-game — final IND 121–DET 133
- Kings at WarriorsGSW 88.1% pre-game — final GSW 110–SAC 105
- Nets at RaptorsTOR 87.4% pre-game — final TOR 136–BKN 101
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Clippers at Kings Mon, Apr 6 | SAC 20.8% · LAC 79.2% | SAC 109–LAC 138 | Hit |
| Rockets at Warriors Mon, Apr 6 | GSW 38.8% · HOU 61.2% | GSW 116–HOU 117 | Hit |
| Knicks at Hawks Mon, Apr 6 | ATL 34.1% · NYK 65.9% | ATL 105–NYK 108 | Hit |
| Pistons at Magic Mon, Apr 6 | ORL 26.9% · DET 73.1% | ORL 123–DET 107 | Miss |
| Cavaliers at Grizzlies Tue, Apr 7 | MEM 25.1% · CLE 74.9% | MEM 126–CLE 142 | Hit |
| 76ers at Spurs Tue, Apr 7 | SAS 82.8% · PHI 17.2% | SAS 115–PHI 102 | Hit |
| Trail Blazers at Nuggets Tue, Apr 7 | DEN 78.8% · POR 21.2% | DEN 137–POR 132 | Hit |
| Bulls at Wizards Tue, Apr 7 | WSH 56.3% · CHI 43.7% | WSH 98–CHI 129 | Miss |
| Timberwolves at Pacers Tue, Apr 7 | IND 13.1% · MIN 86.9% | IND 104–MIN 124 | Hit |
| Bucks at Nets Tue, Apr 7 | BKN 38.1% · MIL 61.9% | BKN 96–MIL 90 | Miss |
| Heat at Raptors Tue, Apr 7 | TOR 52.9% · MIA 47.0% | TOR 121–MIA 95 | Hit |
| Jazz at Pelicans Wed, Apr 8 | NOP 71.7% · UTA 28.3% | NOP 156–UTA 137 | Hit |
| Hornets at Celtics Wed, Apr 8 | BOS 70.9% · CHA 29.1% | BOS 113–CHA 102 | Hit |
| Kings at Warriors Wed, Apr 8 | GSW 88.1% · SAC 11.9% | GSW 110–SAC 105 | Hit |
| Thunder at Lakers Wed, Apr 8 | LAL 24.4% · OKC 75.6% | LAL 87–OKC 123 | Hit |
| Mavericks at Clippers Wed, Apr 8 | LAC 77.4% · DAL 22.6% | LAC 116–DAL 103 | Hit |
| Rockets at Suns Wed, Apr 8 | PHX 43.8% · HOU 56.3% | PHX 105–HOU 119 | Hit |
| Bucks at Pistons Wed, Apr 8 | DET 90.0% · MIL 10.0% | DET 137–MIL 111 | Hit |
| Timberwolves at Magic Wed, Apr 8 | ORL 46.7% · MIN 53.3% | ORL 132–MIN 120 | Miss |
| Hawks at Cavaliers Wed, Apr 8 | CLE 67.0% · ATL 33.1% | CLE 122–ATL 116 | Hit |
| Grizzlies at Nuggets Thu, Apr 9 | DEN 82.7% · MEM 17.3% | DEN 136–MEM 119 | Hit |
| Trail Blazers at Spurs Thu, Apr 9 | SAS 86.6% · POR 13.4% | SAS 112–POR 101 | Hit |
| Mavericks at Suns Thu, Apr 9 | PHX 76.9% · DAL 23.1% | PHX 112–DAL 107 | Hit |
| Thunder at Clippers Thu, Apr 9 | LAC 16.1% · OKC 83.9% | LAC 110–OKC 128 | Hit |
| Bulls at Wizards Thu, Apr 9 | WSH 56.3% · CHI 43.7% | WSH 108–CHI 119 | Miss |
| Heat at Raptors Thu, Apr 9 | TOR 53.4% · MIA 46.6% | TOR 128–MIA 114 | Hit |
| Pacers at Nets Thu, Apr 9 | BKN 56.5% · IND 43.5% | BKN 94–IND 123 | Miss |
| Celtics at Knicks Thu, Apr 9 | NYK 54.3% · BOS 45.7% | NYK 112–BOS 106 | Hit |
| 76ers at Rockets Fri, Apr 10 | HOU 70.4% · PHI 29.6% | HOU 113–PHI 102 | Hit |
| Lakers at Warriors Fri, Apr 10 | GSW 49.8% · LAL 50.2% | GSW 103–LAL 119 | Hit |
| Cavaliers at Hawks Fri, Apr 10 | ATL 41.6% · CLE 58.4% | ATL 124–CLE 102 | Miss |
| Pistons at Hornets Fri, Apr 10 | CHA 38.3% · DET 61.7% | CHA 100–DET 118 | Hit |
| Heat at Wizards Fri, Apr 10 | WSH 56.3% · MIA 43.7% | WSH 117–MIA 140 | Miss |
| Pelicans at Celtics Fri, Apr 10 | BOS 77.2% · NOP 22.8% | BOS 144–NOP 118 | Hit |
| 76ers at Pacers Fri, Apr 10 | IND 24.8% · PHI 75.2% | IND 94–PHI 105 | Hit |
| Raptors at Knicks Fri, Apr 10 | NYK 73.5% · TOR 26.5% | NYK 112–TOR 95 | Hit |
| Magic at Bulls Sat, Apr 11 | CHI 31.0% · ORL 69.0% | CHI 103–ORL 127 | Hit |
| Mavericks at Spurs Sat, Apr 11 | SAS 90.0% · DAL 10.0% | SAS 139–DAL 120 | Hit |
| Nets at Bucks Sat, Apr 11 | MIL 74.4% · BKN 25.6% | MIL 125–BKN 108 | Hit |
| Thunder at Nuggets Sat, Apr 11 | DEN 39.4% · OKC 60.6% | DEN 127–OKC 107 | Miss |
| Timberwolves at Rockets Sat, Apr 11 | HOU 54.6% · MIN 45.4% | HOU 132–MIN 136 | Miss |
| Grizzlies at Jazz Sat, Apr 11 | UTA 38.5% · MEM 61.5% | UTA 147–MEM 101 | Miss |
| Clippers at Trail Blazers Sat, Apr 11 | POR 47.4% · LAC 52.6% | POR 116–LAC 97 | Miss |
| Warriors at Kings Sat, Apr 11 | SAC 19.7% · GSW 80.3% | SAC 124–GSW 118 | Miss |
| Suns at Lakers Sat, Apr 11 | LAL 57.4% · PHX 42.6% | LAL 101–PHX 73 | Hit |
| Bucks at 76ers Sun, Apr 12 | PHI 74.7% · MIL 25.3% | PHI 126–MIL 106 | Hit |
| Hornets at Knicks Sun, Apr 12 | NYK 67.3% · CHA 32.7% | NYK 96–CHA 110 | Miss |
| Hawks at Heat Sun, Apr 12 | MIA 62.7% · ATL 37.3% | MIA 143–ATL 117 | Hit |
| Nets at Raptors Sun, Apr 12 | TOR 87.4% · BKN 12.6% | TOR 136–BKN 101 | Hit |
| Magic at Celtics Sun, Apr 12 | BOS 76.0% · ORL 24.0% | BOS 113–ORL 108 | Hit |
| Pistons at Pacers Sun, Apr 12 | IND 11.2% · DET 88.8% | IND 121–DET 133 | Hit |
| Wizards at Cavaliers Sun, Apr 12 | CLE 56.3% · WSH 43.7% | CLE 130–WSH 117 | Hit |
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