Toronto Raptors at New York Knicks
New York Knicks 73% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Knicks:
- Offensive Efficiency. Knicks offense (116.8 PPG) outpaces Raptors (114.0 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency. Knicks defense (110.3 Opp PPG) better than Raptors (112.0 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage. Knicks are 0-0 at home this season
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: NYK 63% (−10)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: NYK 66% (−7)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: NYK 67% (−6)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: NYK 68% (−5)
Win probability movement
NYK home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Knicks defeated the Raptors 112-95.
Our model predicted the Knicks would win with 73% confidence -- and they delivered. A solid prediction that lined up with the result.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Knicks and was a notable factor: Knicks offense (116.8 PPG) outpaces Raptors (114.0 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Knicks and was a contributing factor: Knicks defense (110.3 Opp PPG) better than Raptors (112.0 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Knicks and was a notable factor: Knicks are 0-0 at home this season
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Knicks won convincingly
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors New York Knicks
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors New York Knicks
- Home Field AdvantageFavors New York Knicks
- Recent FormFavors New York Knicks
- InjuriesNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Raptors
Knicks
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Knicks has a 73% win probability, while Raptors has a 27% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Madison Square Garden in New York, NY.