Milwaukee Bucks at Detroit Pistons
Detroit Pistons 90% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Pistons:
- Offensive Efficiency. Pistons offense (117.4 PPG) outpaces Bucks (111.0 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency. Pistons defense (109.5 Opp PPG) better than Bucks (116.2 Opp PPG)
- Rest Days. Pistons rest advantage (2 days rest) over Bucks (back-to-back)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: DET 83% (−7)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: DET 83% (−7)
- If the rest edge were neutral: DET 88% (−2)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: DET 88% (−2)
Win probability movement
DET home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
Make Your Prediction
View leaderboard to see rankings
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Pistons defeated the Bucks 137-111.
Our model predicted the Pistons would win with 90% confidence -- and they delivered. This was a high-confidence call that played out as expected.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Pistons and was a major factor: Pistons offense (117.4 PPG) outpaces Bucks (111.0 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Pistons and was a major factor: Pistons defense (109.5 Opp PPG) better than Bucks (116.2 Opp PPG)
- Rest Days favored the Pistons and was a major factor: Pistons rest advantage (2 days rest) over Bucks (back-to-back)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Pistons won in a blowout
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Detroit Pistons
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Detroit Pistons
- Rest DaysFavors Detroit Pistons
- Recent FormFavors Detroit Pistons
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Detroit Pistons
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Offensive Efficiency
Pistons offense (117.4 PPG) outpaces Bucks (111.0 PPG)
Defensive Efficiency
Pistons defense (109.5 Opp PPG) better than Bucks (116.2 Opp PPG)
Recent Form
Pistons (51-19) in better form than Bucks (29-41)
Turnover Differential
Pistons turnover differential (+0) vs Bucks (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
Rest Days
Pistons rest advantage (2 days rest) over Bucks (back-to-back)
1 factor
Key Players
Bucks
Pistons
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Pistons has a 90% win probability, while Bucks has a 10% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, MI.