Miami Heat at Toronto Raptors
Toronto Raptors 53% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Raptors:
- Defensive Efficiency. Raptors defense (112.0 Opp PPG) better than Heat (117.2 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage. Raptors are 0-0 at home this season
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: TOR 70% (+17)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: TOR 37% (−16)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: TOR 49% (−4)
- If the rest edge were neutral: TOR 53% (0)
Win probability movement
TOR home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Raptors defeated the Heat 121-95.
Our model predicted the Raptors would win with 53% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Heat and was a major factor: Heat offense (120.3 PPG) outpaces Raptors (114.0 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Raptors and was a major factor: Raptors defense (112.0 Opp PPG) better than Heat (117.2 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Raptors and was a notable factor: Raptors are 0-0 at home this season
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Raptors won in a blowout
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Miami Heat
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Toronto Raptors
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Toronto Raptors
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Recent FormNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Offensive Efficiency
Heat offense (120.3 PPG) outpaces Raptors (114.0 PPG)
Defensive Efficiency
Raptors defense (112.0 Opp PPG) better than Heat (117.2 Opp PPG)
Recent Form
Similar form: Raptors (39-30) vs Heat (38-33)
Turnover Differential
Raptors turnover differential (+0) vs Heat (+0)
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Key Players
Heat
Raptors
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Raptors has a 53% win probability, while Heat has a 47% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON.