Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Rockets defeated the Warriors 117-116.
Our model predicted the Rockets would win with 61% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Rockets and was a major factor: Rockets defense (109.9 Opp PPG) better than Warriors (114.7 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Warriors and was a contributing factor: Warriors are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Warriors and was a contributing factor: Warriors offense (114.8 PPG) outpaces Rockets (113.9 PPG)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Rockets won in a close game
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
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Comparing our probability model against Vegas odds
Warriors
Rockets
Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Rockets defense (109.9 Opp PPG) better than Warriors (114.7 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency
Warriors offense (114.8 PPG) outpaces Rockets (113.9 PPG)
Recent Form
Rockets (43-27) in better form than Warriors (33-38)
Turnover Differential
Warriors turnover differential (+0) vs Rockets (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Rockets
Warriors
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Warriors has a 39% win probability, while Rockets has a 61% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Chase Center in San Francisco, CA.