Philadelphia 76ers at San Antonio Spurs
San Antonio Spurs 83% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Spurs:
- Defensive Efficiency. Spurs defense (111.7 Opp PPG) better than 76ers (116.1 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency. Spurs offense (118.8 PPG) outpaces 76ers (115.6 PPG)
- Recent Form. Spurs (53-18) in better form than 76ers (39-32)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: SAS 68% (−15)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: SAS 71% (−12)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: SAS 76% (−7)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: SAS 77% (−6)
Win probability movement
SAS home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
Make Your Prediction
View leaderboard to see rankings
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Spurs defeated the 76ers 115-102.
Our model predicted the Spurs would win with 83% confidence -- and they delivered. This was a high-confidence call that played out as expected.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Spurs and was a major factor: Spurs defense (111.7 Opp PPG) better than 76ers (116.1 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Spurs and was a notable factor: Spurs offense (118.8 PPG) outpaces 76ers (115.6 PPG)
- Recent Form favored the Spurs and was a contributing factor: Spurs (53-18) in better form than 76ers (39-32)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Spurs won comfortably
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors San Antonio Spurs
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors San Antonio Spurs
- Recent FormFavors San Antonio Spurs
- Home Field AdvantageFavors San Antonio Spurs
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Model vs. Market
Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities
Spurs
76ers
Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Spurs defense (111.7 Opp PPG) better than 76ers (116.1 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency
Spurs offense (118.8 PPG) outpaces 76ers (115.6 PPG)
Recent Form
Spurs (53-18) in better form than 76ers (39-32)
Turnover Differential
Spurs turnover differential (+0) vs 76ers (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
76ers
Spurs
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Spurs has a 83% win probability, while 76ers has a 17% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, TX.