Memphis Grizzlies at Utah Jazz
Memphis Grizzlies 61% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Grizzlies:
- Defensive Efficiency. Grizzlies defense (118.7 Opp PPG) better than Jazz (124.8 Opp PPG)
- Recent Form. Grizzlies (24-46) in better form than Jazz (21-50)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: MEM 41% (−20)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: MEM 64% (+3)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: MEM 63% (+2)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: MEM 57% (−4)
Win probability movement
UTA home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Jazz defeated the Grizzlies 147-101.
Our model predicted the Grizzlies would win with 61% confidence, but the Jazz won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Grizzlies and was a major factor: Grizzlies defense (118.7 Opp PPG) better than Jazz (124.8 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Jazz and was a contributing factor: Jazz offense (117.3 PPG) outpaces Grizzlies (115.7 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Jazz and was a notable factor: Jazz are 0-0 at home this season
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Jazz won in a blowout
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Memphis Grizzlies
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Utah Jazz
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Utah Jazz
- Recent FormFavors Memphis Grizzlies
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Grizzlies defense (118.7 Opp PPG) better than Jazz (124.8 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency
Jazz offense (117.3 PPG) outpaces Grizzlies (115.7 PPG)
Recent Form
Grizzlies (24-46) in better form than Jazz (21-50)
Turnover Differential
Jazz turnover differential (+0) vs Grizzlies (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Grizzlies
Jazz
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Jazz has a 39% win probability, while Grizzlies has a 61% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Delta Center in Salt Lake City, UT.