Boston Celtics at New York Knicks
New York Knicks 54% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Knicks:
- Offensive Efficiency. Knicks offense (116.8 PPG) outpaces Celtics (114.4 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage. Knicks are 0-0 at home this season
- Rest Days. Knicks rest advantage (3 days rest) over Celtics (1 day rest)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: NYK 64% (+10)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: NYK 47% (−7)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: NYK 51% (−3)
- If the rest edge were neutral: NYK 52% (−2)
Win probability movement
NYK home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Knicks defeated the Celtics 112-106.
Our model predicted the Knicks would win with 54% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Celtics and was a notable factor: Celtics defense (107.0 Opp PPG) better than Knicks (110.3 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Knicks and was a notable factor: Knicks offense (116.8 PPG) outpaces Celtics (114.4 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Knicks and was a notable factor: Knicks are 0-0 at home this season
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Knicks won by a solid margin
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Boston Celtics
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors New York Knicks
- Home Field AdvantageFavors New York Knicks
- Rest DaysFavors New York Knicks
- Recent FormNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Celtics
Knicks
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Knicks has a 54% win probability, while Celtics has a 46% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Madison Square Garden in New York, NY.