Phoenix Suns at Los Angeles Lakers
Los Angeles Lakers 57% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Lakers:
- Offensive Efficiency. Lakers offense (116.6 PPG) outpaces Suns (112.2 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage. Lakers are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Recent Form. Lakers (46-25) in better form than Suns (39-32)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: LAL 43% (−14)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: LAL 67% (+10)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: LAL 53% (−4)
- If the rest edge were neutral: LAL 58% (+1)
Win probability movement
LAL home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Lakers defeated the Suns 101-73.
Our model predicted the Lakers would win with 57% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Lakers and was a major factor: Lakers offense (116.6 PPG) outpaces Suns (112.2 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Suns and was a major factor: Suns defense (111.2 Opp PPG) better than Lakers (114.9 Opp PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Lakers and was a contributing factor: Lakers are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Lakers won in a blowout
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Los Angeles Lakers
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Phoenix Suns
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Los Angeles Lakers
- Rest DaysFavors Phoenix Suns
- Recent FormFavors Los Angeles Lakers
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Offensive Efficiency
Lakers offense (116.6 PPG) outpaces Suns (112.2 PPG)
Defensive Efficiency
Suns defense (111.2 Opp PPG) better than Lakers (114.9 Opp PPG)
Recent Form
Lakers (46-25) in better form than Suns (39-32)
Turnover Differential
Lakers turnover differential (+0) vs Suns (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Suns
Lakers
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Lakers has a 57% win probability, while Suns has a 43% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, CA.