Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets
Oklahoma City Thunder 61% to win. The top 2 signals favoring Thunder:
- Defensive Efficiency. Thunder defense (107.5 Opp PPG) better than Nuggets (116.5 Opp PPG)
- Recent Form. Thunder (56-15) in better form than Nuggets (43-28)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: OKC 40% (−21)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: OKC 65% (+4)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: OKC 54% (−7)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: OKC 62% (+1)
Win probability movement
DEN home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Nuggets defeated the Thunder 127-107.
Our model predicted the Thunder would win with 61% confidence, but the Nuggets won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Thunder and was a major factor: Thunder defense (107.5 Opp PPG) better than Nuggets (116.5 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Nuggets and was a notable factor: Nuggets offense (120.7 PPG) outpaces Thunder (118.5 PPG)
- Recent Form favored the Thunder and was a contributing factor: Thunder (56-15) in better form than Nuggets (43-28)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Nuggets won convincingly
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Oklahoma City Thunder
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Denver Nuggets
- Recent FormFavors Oklahoma City Thunder
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Denver Nuggets
- Rest DaysFavors Denver Nuggets
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
Defensive Efficiency
Thunder defense (107.5 Opp PPG) better than Nuggets (116.5 Opp PPG)
Offensive Efficiency
Nuggets offense (120.7 PPG) outpaces Thunder (118.5 PPG)
Recent Form
Thunder (56-15) in better form than Nuggets (43-28)
Turnover Differential
Nuggets turnover differential (+0) vs Thunder (+0)
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
Key Players
Thunder
Nuggets
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Nuggets has a 39% win probability, while Thunder has a 61% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Ball Arena in Denver, CO.