MLB report card: week of 2026-05-04 (2026)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
57.4%
hit rate
0.246
Brier score
54 of 94 decided
Season to date
53.9%
hit rate
0.248
Brier score
1103 of 2046 decided · 10 ties
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Orioles at MarlinsMIA 61.7% pre-game — final MIA 7–BAL 9
- Tigers at RoyalsKC 54.9% pre-game — final KC 3–DET 6
- Braves at DodgersLAD 54.9% pre-game — final LAD 2–ATL 7
- Twins at GuardiansCLE 54.9% pre-game — final CLE 4–MIN 5
- Angels at Blue JaysTOR 54.9% pre-game — final TOR 1–LAA 6
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Pirates at GiantsSF 56.8% pre-game — final SF 5–PIT 2
- Yankees at BrewersMIL 56.8% pre-game — final MIL 6–NYY 0
- Cardinals at PadresSD 54.9% pre-game — final SD 3–STL 2
- Mets at DiamondbacksARI 54.9% pre-game — final ARI 5–NYM 1
- Pirates at GiantsSF 54.9% pre-game — final SF 7–PIT 6
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mets at Rockies Mon, May 4 | COL 54.9% · NYM 45.1% | COL 2–NYM 4 | Miss |
| Red Sox at Tigers Mon, May 4 | DET 47.9% · BOS 52.1% | DET 4–BOS 5 | Hit |
| Phillies at Marlins Mon, May 4 | MIA 54.9% · PHI 45.1% | MIA 0–PHI 1 | Miss |
| Blue Jays at Rays Mon, May 4 | TB 54.9% · TOR 45.1% | TB 5–TOR 1 | Hit |
| Orioles at Yankees Mon, May 4 | NYY 54.9% · BAL 45.1% | NYY 12–BAL 1 | Hit |
| Reds at Cubs Mon, May 4 | CHC 54.9% · CIN 45.1% | CHC 5–CIN 4 | Hit |
| Guardians at Royals Mon, May 4 | KC 54.9% · CLE 45.1% | KC 6–CLE 2 | Hit |
| Brewers at Cardinals Mon, May 4 | STL 54.9% · MIL 45.1% | STL 6–MIL 3 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Astros Tue, May 5 | HOU 54.9% · LAD 45.1% | HOU 3–LAD 8 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Angels Tue, May 5 | LAA 54.9% · CWS 45.1% | LAA 0–CWS 6 | Miss |
| Braves at Mariners Tue, May 5 | SEA 54.9% · ATL 45.1% | SEA 5–ATL 4 | Hit |
| Padres at Giants Tue, May 5 | SF 54.9% · SD 45.1% | SF 3–SD 2 | Hit |
| Blue Jays at Rays Tue, May 5 | TB 54.9% · TOR 45.1% | TB 4–TOR 3 | Hit |
| Athletics at Phillies Tue, May 5 | PHI 52.9% · OAK 47.1% | PHI 9–OAK 1 | Hit |
| Red Sox at Tigers Tue, May 5 | DET 54.9% · BOS 45.1% | DET 3–BOS 10 | Miss |
| Orioles at Marlins Tue, May 5 | MIA 61.7% · BAL 38.3% | MIA 7–BAL 9 | Miss |
| Twins at Nationals Tue, May 5 | WSH 54.9% · MIN 45.1% | WSH 3–MIN 11 | Miss |
| Rangers at Yankees Tue, May 5 | NYY 54.9% · TEX 45.1% | NYY 7–TEX 4 | Hit |
| Guardians at Royals Tue, May 5 | KC 54.9% · CLE 45.1% | KC 5–CLE 3 | Hit |
| Reds at Cubs Tue, May 5 | CHC 54.9% · CIN 45.1% | CHC 3–CIN 2 | Hit |
| Dodgers at Astros Wed, May 6 | HOU 54.9% · LAD 45.1% | HOU 2–LAD 1 | Hit |
| Chicago White Sox at Angels Wed, May 6 | LAA 54.9% · CWS 45.1% | LAA 4–CWS 3 | Hit |
| Pirates at Diamondbacks Wed, May 6 | ARI 54.9% · PIT 45.1% | ARI 9–PIT 0 | Hit |
| Braves at Mariners Wed, May 6 | SEA 54.9% · ATL 45.1% | SEA 2–ATL 3 | Miss |
| Padres at Giants Wed, May 6 | SF 54.9% · SD 45.1% | SF 5–SD 10 | Miss |
| Blue Jays at Rays Wed, May 6 | TB 54.9% · TOR 45.1% | TB 3–TOR 0 | Hit |
| Brewers at Cardinals Wed, May 6 | STL 54.9% · MIL 45.1% | STL 2–MIL 6 | Miss |
| Dodgers at Astros Wed, May 6 | HOU 54.9% · LAD 45.1% | HOU 2–LAD 12 | Miss |
| Padres at Giants Wed, May 6 | SF 54.9% · SD 45.1% | SF 1–SD 5 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Angels Wed, May 6 | LAA 54.9% · CWS 45.1% | LAA 8–CWS 2 | Hit |
| Braves at Mariners Wed, May 6 | SEA 54.9% · ATL 45.1% | SEA 3–ATL 1 | Hit |
| Orioles at Marlins Wed, May 6 | MIA 54.9% · BAL 45.1% | MIA 4–BAL 7 | Miss |
| Red Sox at Tigers Wed, May 6 | DET 54.9% · BOS 45.1% | DET 0–BOS 4 | Miss |
| Athletics at Phillies Wed, May 6 | PHI 54.9% · OAK 45.1% | PHI 6–OAK 3 | Hit |
| Twins at Nationals Wed, May 6 | WSH 54.9% · MIN 45.1% | WSH 15–MIN 2 | Hit |
| Rangers at Yankees Wed, May 6 | NYY 54.9% · TEX 45.1% | NYY 1–TEX 6 | Miss |
| Guardians at Royals Wed, May 6 | KC 54.9% · CLE 45.1% | KC 1–CLE 3 | Miss |
| Reds at Cubs Wed, May 6 | CHC 54.9% · CIN 45.1% | CHC 7–CIN 6 | Hit |
| Mets at Rockies Thu, May 7 | COL 54.9% · NYM 45.1% | COL 5–NYM 10 | Miss |
| Pirates at Diamondbacks Thu, May 7 | ARI 54.9% · PIT 45.1% | ARI 0–PIT 1 | Miss |
| Rangers at Yankees Thu, May 7 | NYY 54.9% · TEX 45.1% | NYY 9–TEX 2 | Hit |
| Twins at Nationals Thu, May 7 | WSH 54.9% · MIN 45.1% | WSH 7–MIN 5 | Hit |
| Guardians at Royals Thu, May 7 | KC 54.9% · CLE 45.1% | KC 5–CLE 8 | Miss |
| Reds at Cubs Thu, May 7 | CHC 54.9% · CIN 45.1% | CHC 8–CIN 3 | Hit |
| Mets at Rockies Thu, May 7 | COL 54.9% · NYM 45.1% | COL 6–NYM 2 | Hit |
| Pirates at Diamondbacks Thu, May 7 | ARI 54.9% · PIT 45.1% | ARI 2–PIT 4 | Miss |
| Orioles at Marlins Thu, May 7 | MIA 54.9% · BAL 45.1% | MIA 4–BAL 3 | Hit |
| Athletics at Phillies Thu, May 7 | PHI 54.9% · OAK 45.1% | PHI 1–OAK 12 | Miss |
| Rays at Red Sox Thu, May 7 | BOS 54.9% · TB 45.1% | BOS 4–TB 8 | Miss |
| Cardinals at Padres Fri, May 8 | SD 54.9% · STL 45.1% | SD 1–STL 2 | Miss |
| Astros at Reds Fri, May 8 | CIN 52.9% · HOU 47.1% | CIN 0–HOU 10 | Miss |
| Rockies at Phillies Fri, May 8 | PHI 54.9% · COL 45.1% | PHI 7–COL 9 | Miss |
| Athletics at Orioles Fri, May 8 | BAL 54.9% · OAK 45.1% | BAL 3–OAK 4 | Miss |
| Angels at Blue Jays Fri, May 8 | TOR 54.9% · LAA 45.1% | TOR 2–LAA 0 | Hit |
| Rays at Red Sox Fri, May 8 | BOS 54.9% · TB 45.1% | BOS 2–TB 0 | Hit |
| Nationals at Marlins Fri, May 8 | MIA 54.9% · WSH 45.1% | MIA 2–WSH 3 | Miss |
| Twins at Guardians Fri, May 8 | CLE 54.9% · MIN 45.1% | CLE 6–MIN 4 | Hit |
| Yankees at Brewers Fri, May 8 | MIL 56.8% · NYY 43.2% | MIL 6–NYY 0 | Hit |
| Mariners at Chicago White Sox Fri, May 8 | CWS 54.9% · SEA 45.1% | CWS 8–SEA 12 | Miss |
| Tigers at Royals Fri, May 8 | KC 52.9% · DET 47.1% | KC 4–DET 3 | Hit |
| Cubs at Rangers Sat, May 9 | TEX 54.9% · CHC 45.1% | TEX 1–CHC 7 | Miss |
| Mets at Diamondbacks Sat, May 9 | ARI 54.9% · NYM 45.1% | ARI 1–NYM 3 | Miss |
| Cardinals at Padres Sat, May 9 | SD 54.9% · STL 45.1% | SD 0–STL 6 | Miss |
| Braves at Dodgers Sat, May 9 | LAD 54.9% · ATL 45.1% | LAD 3–ATL 1 | Hit |
| Pirates at Giants Sat, May 9 | SF 56.8% · PIT 43.2% | SF 5–PIT 2 | Hit |
| Angels at Blue Jays Sat, May 9 | TOR 54.9% · LAA 45.1% | TOR 14–LAA 1 | Hit |
| Athletics at Orioles Sat, May 9 | BAL 54.9% · OAK 45.1% | BAL 2–OAK 6 | Miss |
| Nationals at Marlins Sat, May 9 | MIA 54.9% · WSH 45.1% | MIA 8–WSH 7 | Hit |
| Astros at Reds Sat, May 9 | CIN 54.9% · HOU 45.1% | CIN 3–HOU 1 | Hit |
| Rockies at Phillies Sat, May 9 | PHI 54.9% · COL 45.1% | PHI 9–COL 3 | Hit |
| Twins at Guardians Sat, May 9 | CLE 54.9% · MIN 45.1% | CLE 1–MIN 2 | Miss |
| Cubs at Rangers Sat, May 9 | TEX 54.9% · CHC 45.1% | TEX 6–CHC 0 | Hit |
| Yankees at Brewers Sat, May 9 | MIL 54.9% · NYY 45.1% | MIL 4–NYY 3 | Hit |
| Mariners at Chicago White Sox Sat, May 9 | CWS 54.9% · SEA 45.1% | CWS 6–SEA 1 | Hit |
| Tigers at Royals Sat, May 9 | KC 54.9% · DET 45.1% | KC 5–DET 1 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Padres Sat, May 9 | SD 54.9% · STL 45.1% | SD 4–STL 2 | Hit |
| Mets at Diamondbacks Sat, May 9 | ARI 54.9% · NYM 45.1% | ARI 2–NYM 1 | Hit |
| Pirates at Giants Sun, May 10 | SF 54.9% · PIT 45.1% | SF 3–PIT 13 | Miss |
| Braves at Dodgers Sun, May 10 | LAD 54.9% · ATL 45.1% | LAD 2–ATL 7 | Miss |
| Nationals at Marlins Sun, May 10 | MIA 54.9% · WSH 45.1% | MIA 5–WSH 2 | Hit |
| Rays at Red Sox Sun, May 10 | BOS 54.9% · TB 45.1% | BOS 1–TB 4 | Miss |
| Athletics at Orioles Sun, May 10 | BAL 54.9% · OAK 45.1% | BAL 2–OAK 1 | Hit |
| Rockies at Phillies Sun, May 10 | PHI 54.9% · COL 45.1% | PHI 6–COL 0 | Hit |
| Angels at Blue Jays Sun, May 10 | TOR 54.9% · LAA 45.1% | TOR 1–LAA 6 | Miss |
| Twins at Guardians Sun, May 10 | CLE 54.9% · MIN 45.1% | CLE 4–MIN 5 | Miss |
| Astros at Reds Sun, May 10 | CIN 54.9% · HOU 45.1% | CIN 5–HOU 0 | Hit |
| Yankees at Brewers Sun, May 10 | MIL 54.9% · NYY 45.1% | MIL 4–NYY 3 | Hit |
| Mariners at Chicago White Sox Sun, May 10 | CWS 54.9% · SEA 45.1% | CWS 2–SEA 1 | Hit |
| Cubs at Rangers Sun, May 10 | TEX 54.9% · CHC 45.1% | TEX 3–CHC 0 | Hit |
| Pirates at Giants Sun, May 10 | SF 54.9% · PIT 45.1% | SF 7–PIT 6 | Hit |
| Cardinals at Padres Sun, May 10 | SD 54.9% · STL 45.1% | SD 3–STL 2 | Hit |
| Mets at Diamondbacks Sun, May 10 | ARI 54.9% · NYM 45.1% | ARI 5–NYM 1 | Hit |
| Braves at Dodgers Sun, May 10 | LAD 54.9% · ATL 45.1% | LAD 2–ATL 7 | Miss |
| Tigers at Royals Sun, May 10 | KC 54.9% · DET 45.1% | KC 3–DET 6 | Miss |
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