Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs
Chicago Cubs 55% to win. The biggest signal favoring Cubs:
- Home Field Advantage. Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: CHC 52% (−3)
Win probability movement
CHC home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
Make Your Prediction
View leaderboard to see rankings
Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Cubs defeated the Reds 3-2.
Our model predicted the Cubs would win with 55% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Cubs and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Recent Form was neutral and a contributing factor: No recent form data available
- Injuries was neutral and a contributing factor: Similar injury situations: Cubs (0 out) vs Reds (0 out)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Cubs won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Chicago Cubs
- Recent FormNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Weather ImpactNeutral
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Model vs. Market
Comparing our model against market-implied probabilities
Cubs
Reds
Odds by Source
| Source | Cubs | Reds | Spread | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag | -157 | +142 | - | - |
| FanDuel | -158 | +134 | -1.5 | 8 |
Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest & Schedule
Low impact1 factor
Historical
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Reds
Cubs
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Cubs has a 55% win probability, while Reds has a 45% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois.