Boston Red Sox at Detroit Tigers
Boston Red Sox 52% to win. The biggest signal favoring Red Sox:
- Rest Days. Red Sox rest advantage (1 day rest) over Tigers (back-to-back)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the rest edge were neutral: BOS 44% (−8)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: BOS 54% (+2)
Win probability movement
DET home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Red Sox defeated the Tigers 5-4.
Our model predicted the Red Sox would win with 52% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Rest Days favored the Red Sox and was a major factor: Red Sox rest advantage (1 day rest) over Tigers (back-to-back)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Tigers and was a notable factor: Base home field advantage applied (no detailed stats available)
- Offensive Efficiency was neutral and a contributing factor: No offensive stats available for comparison
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Red Sox won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Rest DaysFavors Boston Red Sox
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Detroit Tigers
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
3 factors
Injuries & Personnel
Low impact1 factor
1 factor
Rest Days
Red Sox rest advantage (1 day rest) over Tigers (back-to-back)
Historical
Low impact1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Red Sox
Tigers
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Tigers has a 48% win probability, while Red Sox has a 52% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers weather conditions, offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Comerica Park in Detroit, Michigan.