MLB report card: week of 2026-03-16 (2026)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
68.2%
hit rate
0.235
Brier score
60 of 88 decided · 4 ties
Season to date
53.9%
hit rate
0.248
Brier score
1103 of 2046 decided · 10 ties
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Red Sox at PiratesPIT 54.9% pre-game — final PIT 3–BOS 6
- Cardinals at AstrosHOU 54.9% pre-game — final HOU 2–STL 3
- Cubs at MarinersSEA 54.9% pre-game — final SEA 1–CHC 7
- Astros at MetsNYM 54.9% pre-game — final NYM 5–HOU 7
- Braves at Red SoxBOS 54.9% pre-game — final BOS 1–ATL 6
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Athletics at RockiesCOL 54.9% pre-game — final COL 6–OAK 5
- Reds at GuardiansCLE 54.9% pre-game — final CLE 8–CIN 2
- Brewers at CubsCHC 54.9% pre-game — final CHC 12–MIL 0
- Nationals at OriolesBAL 54.9% pre-game — final BAL 8–WSH 1
- Mets at MarlinsMIA 54.9% pre-game — final MIA 4–NYM 3
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Phillies at Tigers Mon, Mar 16 | DET 54.9% · PHI 45.1% | DET 13–PHI 6 | Hit |
| Rays at Braves Mon, Mar 16 | ATL 54.9% · TB 45.1% | ATL 11–TB 2 | Hit |
| Pirates at Twins Mon, Mar 16 | MIN 54.9% · PIT 45.1% | MIN 5–PIT 1 | Hit |
| Blue Jays at Marlins Mon, Mar 16 | MIA 54.9% · TOR 45.1% | MIA 4–TOR 5 | Miss |
| Angels at Athletics Mon, Mar 16 | OAK 54.9% · LAA 45.1% | OAK 3–LAA 0 | Hit |
| Brewers at Dodgers Mon, Mar 16 | LAD 54.9% · MIL 45.1% | LAD 9–MIL 24 | Miss |
| Reds at Diamondbacks Mon, Mar 16 | ARI 54.9% · CIN 45.1% | ARI 11–CIN 6 | Hit |
| Giants at Padres Mon, Mar 16 | SD 54.9% · SF 45.1% | SD 3–SF 1 | Hit |
| Nationals at Mets Mon, Mar 16 | NYM 54.9% · WSH 45.1% | NYM 6–WSH 12 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Rangers Tue, Mar 17 | TEX 54.9% · CWS 45.1% | TEX 3–CWS 2 | Hit |
| Cubs at Guardians Tue, Mar 17 | CLE 54.9% · CHC 45.1% | CLE 2–CHC 5 | Miss |
| Astros at Pirates Tue, Mar 17 | PIT 54.9% · HOU 45.1% | PIT 2–HOU 10 | Miss |
| Cardinals at Nationals Tue, Mar 17 | WSH 54.9% · STL 45.1% | WSH 1–STL 0 | Hit |
| Twins at Phillies Tue, Mar 17 | PHI 54.9% · MIN 45.1% | PHI 2–MIN 0 | Hit |
| Braves at Red Sox Tue, Mar 17 | BOS 54.9% · ATL 45.1% | BOS 4–ATL 3 | Hit |
| Yankees at Rays Tue, Mar 17 | TB 54.9% · NYY 45.1% | TB 2–NYY 3 | Miss |
| Orioles at Tigers Tue, Mar 17 | DET 54.9% · BAL 45.1% | DET 1–BAL 1 | Tie |
| Mets at Marlins Tue, Mar 17 | MIA 54.9% · NYM 45.1% | MIA 5–NYM 5 | Tie |
| Athletics at Chicago White Sox Tue, Mar 17 | CWS 54.9% · OAK 45.1% | CWS 6–OAK 4 | Hit |
| Padres at Mariners Tue, Mar 17 | SEA 54.9% · SD 45.1% | SEA 6–SD 9 | Miss |
| Mariners at Rockies Tue, Mar 17 | COL 54.9% · SEA 45.1% | COL 6–SEA 10 | Miss |
| Dodgers at Royals Wed, Mar 18 | KC 54.9% · LAD 45.1% | KC 4–LAD 10 | Miss |
| Angels at Cubs Wed, Mar 18 | CHC 54.9% · LAA 45.1% | CHC 8–LAA 6 | Hit |
| Guardians at Reds Wed, Mar 18 | CIN 54.9% · CLE 45.1% | CIN 6–CLE 8 | Miss |
| Phillies at Braves Wed, Mar 18 | ATL 54.9% · PHI 45.1% | ATL 3–PHI 2 | Hit |
| Red Sox at Yankees Wed, Mar 18 | NYY 54.9% · BOS 45.1% | NYY 1–BOS 0 | Hit |
| Astros at Cardinals Wed, Mar 18 | STL 54.9% · HOU 45.1% | STL 4–HOU 1 | Hit |
| Orioles at Blue Jays Wed, Mar 18 | TOR 54.9% · BAL 45.1% | TOR 2–BAL 3 | Miss |
| Rockies at Reds Wed, Mar 18 | CIN 54.9% · COL 45.1% | CIN 6–COL 8 | Miss |
| Giants at Dodgers Wed, Mar 18 | LAD 54.9% · SF 45.1% | LAD 5–SF 1 | Hit |
| Angels at Brewers Wed, Mar 18 | MIL 54.9% · LAA 45.1% | MIL 3–LAA 4 | Miss |
| Reds at Angels Wed, Mar 18 | LAA 54.9% · CIN 45.1% | LAA 7–CIN 4 | Hit |
| Cubs at Diamondbacks Wed, Mar 18 | ARI 54.9% · CHC 45.1% | ARI 16–CHC 8 | Hit |
| Brewers at Mariners Wed, Mar 18 | SEA 54.9% · MIL 45.1% | SEA 7–MIL 3 | Hit |
| Tigers at Pirates Wed, Mar 18 | PIT 54.9% · DET 45.1% | PIT 3–DET 1 | Hit |
| Royals at Rangers Thu, Mar 19 | TEX 54.9% · KC 45.1% | TEX 12–KC 3 | Hit |
| Orioles at Yankees Thu, Mar 19 | NYY 54.9% · BAL 45.1% | NYY 5–BAL 4 | Hit |
| Nationals at Cardinals Thu, Mar 19 | STL 54.9% · WSH 45.1% | STL 5–WSH 1 | Hit |
| Rays at Phillies Thu, Mar 19 | PHI 54.9% · TB 45.1% | PHI 8–TB 2 | Hit |
| Yankees at Blue Jays Thu, Mar 19 | TOR 54.9% · NYY 45.1% | TOR 11–NYY 0 | Hit |
| Twins at Red Sox Thu, Mar 19 | BOS 54.9% · MIN 45.1% | BOS 4–MIN 2 | Hit |
| Mets at Astros Thu, Mar 19 | HOU 54.9% · NYM 45.1% | HOU 2–NYM 6 | Miss |
| Pirates at Orioles Thu, Mar 19 | BAL 54.9% · PIT 45.1% | BAL 5–PIT 2 | Hit |
| Diamondbacks at Chicago White Sox Fri, Mar 20 | CWS 54.9% · ARI 45.1% | CWS 4–ARI 2 | Hit |
| Royals at Guardians Fri, Mar 20 | CLE 54.9% · KC 45.1% | CLE 6–KC 5 | Hit |
| Angels at Royals Fri, Mar 20 | KC 54.9% · LAA 45.1% | KC 3–LAA 4 | Miss |
| Rangers at Brewers Fri, Mar 20 | MIL 54.9% · TEX 45.1% | MIL 11–TEX 4 | Hit |
| Mariners at Athletics Fri, Mar 20 | OAK 54.9% · SEA 45.1% | OAK 4–SEA 6 | Miss |
| Giants at Rockies Fri, Mar 20 | COL 54.9% · SF 45.1% | COL 11–SF 14 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Padres Fri, Mar 20 | SD 54.9% · CWS 45.1% | SD 13–CWS 6 | Hit |
| Red Sox at Rays Fri, Mar 20 | TB 54.9% · BOS 45.1% | TB 2–BOS 0 | Hit |
| Tigers at Phillies Fri, Mar 20 | PHI 54.9% · DET 45.1% | PHI 4–DET 4 | Tie |
| Blue Jays at Twins Fri, Mar 20 | MIN 54.9% · TOR 45.1% | MIN 1–TOR 2 | Miss |
| Cardinals at Mets Fri, Mar 20 | NYM 54.9% · STL 45.1% | NYM 3–STL 4 | Miss |
| Chicago White Sox at Angels Fri, Mar 20 | LAA 54.9% · CWS 45.1% | LAA 4–CWS 3 | Hit |
| Marlins at Astros Fri, Mar 20 | HOU 54.9% · MIA 45.1% | HOU 4–MIA 7 | Miss |
| Pirates at Braves Fri, Mar 20 | ATL 54.9% · PIT 45.1% | ATL 8–PIT 1 | Hit |
| Orioles at Yankees Fri, Mar 20 | NYY 54.9% · BAL 45.1% | NYY 3–BAL 1 | Hit |
| Nationals at Marlins Fri, Mar 20 | MIA 54.9% · WSH 45.1% | MIA 3–WSH 2 | Hit |
| Royals at Giants Sat, Mar 21 | SF 54.9% · KC 45.1% | SF 5–KC 2 | Hit |
| Padres at Dodgers Sat, Mar 21 | LAD 54.9% · SD 45.1% | LAD 4–SD 3 | Hit |
| Reds at Cubs Sat, Mar 21 | CHC 54.9% · CIN 45.1% | CHC 6–CIN 8 | Miss |
| Giants at Rangers Sat, Mar 21 | TEX 54.9% · SF 45.1% | TEX 6–SF 5 | Hit |
| Mariners at Guardians Sat, Mar 21 | CLE 54.9% · SEA 45.1% | CLE 8–SEA 20 | Miss |
| Rockies at Padres Sat, Mar 21 | SD 54.9% · COL 45.1% | SD 3–COL 9 | Miss |
| Cubs at Athletics Sat, Mar 21 | OAK 54.9% · CHC 45.1% | OAK 6–CHC 2 | Hit |
| Brewers at Diamondbacks Sat, Mar 21 | ARI 54.9% · MIL 45.1% | ARI 8–MIL 7 | Hit |
| Phillies at Orioles Sat, Mar 21 | BAL 54.9% · PHI 45.1% | BAL 10–PHI 8 | Hit |
| Yankees at Tigers Sat, Mar 21 | DET 54.9% · NYY 45.1% | DET 3–NYY 1 | Hit |
| Twins at Rays Sat, Mar 21 | TB 54.9% · MIN 45.1% | TB 3–MIN 2 | Hit |
| Mets at Nationals Sat, Mar 21 | WSH 54.9% · NYM 45.1% | WSH 3–NYM 1 | Hit |
| Blue Jays at Pirates Sat, Mar 21 | PIT 54.9% · TOR 45.1% | PIT 8–TOR 3 | Hit |
| Marlins at Cardinals Sat, Mar 21 | STL 54.9% · MIA 45.1% | STL 7–MIA 4 | Hit |
| Braves at Red Sox Sat, Mar 21 | BOS 54.9% · ATL 45.1% | BOS 1–ATL 6 | Miss |
| Astros at Mets Sat, Mar 21 | NYM 54.9% · HOU 45.1% | NYM 5–HOU 7 | Miss |
| Athletics at Dodgers Sat, Mar 21 | LAD 54.9% · OAK 45.1% | LAD 5–OAK 5 | Tie |
| Guardians at Giants Sat, Mar 21 | SF 54.9% · CLE 45.1% | SF 10–CLE 7 | Hit |
| Rockies at Royals Sat, Mar 21 | KC 54.9% · COL 45.1% | KC 6–COL 5 | Hit |
| Rangers at Diamondbacks Sat, Mar 21 | ARI 54.9% · TEX 45.1% | ARI 5–TEX 2 | Hit |
| Padres at Brewers Sat, Mar 21 | MIL 54.9% · SD 45.1% | MIL 6–SD 1 | Hit |
| Chicago White Sox at Reds Sun, Mar 22 | CIN 54.9% · CWS 45.1% | CIN 11–CWS 7 | Hit |
| Cubs at Mariners Sun, Mar 22 | SEA 54.9% · CHC 45.1% | SEA 1–CHC 7 | Miss |
| Cardinals at Astros Sun, Mar 22 | HOU 54.9% · STL 45.1% | HOU 2–STL 3 | Miss |
| Phillies at Yankees Sun, Mar 22 | NYY 54.9% · PHI 45.1% | NYY 6–PHI 2 | Hit |
| Red Sox at Pirates Sun, Mar 22 | PIT 54.9% · BOS 45.1% | PIT 3–BOS 6 | Miss |
| Braves at Twins Sun, Mar 22 | MIN 54.9% · ATL 45.1% | MIN 7–ATL 3 | Hit |
| Rays at Blue Jays Sun, Mar 22 | TOR 54.9% · TB 45.1% | TOR 14–TB 1 | Hit |
| Mets at Marlins Sun, Mar 22 | MIA 54.9% · NYM 45.1% | MIA 4–NYM 3 | Hit |
| Nationals at Orioles Sun, Mar 22 | BAL 54.9% · WSH 45.1% | BAL 8–WSH 1 | Hit |
| Reds at Guardians Sun, Mar 22 | CLE 54.9% · CIN 45.1% | CLE 8–CIN 2 | Hit |
| Brewers at Cubs Sun, Mar 22 | CHC 54.9% · MIL 45.1% | CHC 12–MIL 0 | Hit |
| Athletics at Rockies Sun, Mar 22 | COL 54.9% · OAK 45.1% | COL 6–OAK 5 | Hit |
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