NHL report card: week of 2026-03-02 (2025-26)
Every finished game this week, graded on the last pre-game win probability — the same rule as model accuracy. Hit rate is outright: did the favored side win. Brier score is lower when the probabilities were closer to the result.
This week
63.6%
hit rate
0.235
Brier score
14 of 22 decided
Season to date
52.8%
hit rate
0.252
Brier score
216 of 409 decided
Biggest misses
The model was confident and the favored side lost.
- Lightning at Maple LeafsTOR 67.0% pre-game — final TOR 2–TBL 5
- Canadiens at KingsLAK 59.0% pre-game — final LAK 3–MTL 4
- Blues at SharksSJS 57.1% pre-game — final SJS 2–STL 3
- Penguins at DevilsNJD 56.3% pre-game — final NJD 0–PIT 3
- Utah Hockey Club at Blue JacketsCBJ 54.3% pre-game — final CBJ 4–UTA 5
Best calls
The model was confident and the favored side won.
- Canadiens at DucksANA 62.6% pre-game — final ANA 6–MTL 5
- Capitals at BruinsBOS 61.9% pre-game — final BOS 3–WSH 1
- Flames at IslandersNYI 60.6% pre-game — final NYI 8–CGY 7
- Panthers at Blue JacketsCBJ 58.7% pre-game — final CBJ 4–FLA 2
- Lightning at JetsWPG 56.9% pre-game — final WPG 4–TBL 1
| Game | Pre-game | Final | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Maple Leafs at Devils Thu, Mar 5 | NJD 46.4% · TOR 53.6% | NJD 4–TOR 3 | Miss |
| Islanders at Ducks Thu, Mar 5 | ANA 56.9% · NYI 43.1% | ANA 5–NYI 1 | Hit |
| Maple Leafs at Islanders Fri, Mar 6 | NYI 46.7% · TOR 53.3% | NYI 6–TOR 2 | Miss |
| Panthers at Blue Jackets Fri, Mar 6 | CBJ 58.7% · FLA 41.3% | CBJ 4–FLA 2 | Hit |
| Bruins at Predators Fri, Mar 6 | NSH 56.3% · BOS 43.7% | NSH 6–BOS 3 | Hit |
| Lightning at Jets Fri, Mar 6 | WPG 56.9% · TBL 43.1% | WPG 4–TBL 1 | Hit |
| Senators at Flames Fri, Mar 6 | CGY 47.6% · OTT 52.4% | CGY 1–OTT 4 | Hit |
| Islanders at Kings Fri, Mar 6 | LAK 53.8% · NYI 46.3% | LAK 5–NYI 3 | Hit |
| Canadiens at Ducks Sat, Mar 7 | ANA 62.6% · MTL 37.4% | ANA 6–MTL 5 | Hit |
| Blues at Sharks Sat, Mar 7 | SJS 57.1% · STL 42.9% | SJS 2–STL 3 | Miss |
| Capitals at Bruins Sat, Mar 7 | BOS 61.9% · WSH 38.1% | BOS 3–WSH 1 | Hit |
| Islanders at Devils Sat, Mar 7 | NJD 56.4% · NYI 43.6% | NJD 6–NYI 3 | Hit |
| Lightning at Maple Leafs Sun, Mar 8 | TOR 67.0% · TBL 33.0% | TOR 2–TBL 5 | Miss |
| Utah Hockey Club at Blue Jackets Sun, Mar 8 | CBJ 54.3% · UTA 45.7% | CBJ 4–UTA 5 | Miss |
| Canadiens at Kings Sun, Mar 8 | LAK 59.0% · MTL 41.0% | LAK 3–MTL 4 | Miss |
| Canucks at Jets Sun, Mar 8 | WPG 53.4% · VAN 46.6% | WPG 3–VAN 2 | Hit |
| Islanders at Sharks Sun, Mar 8 | SJS 51.8% · NYI 48.2% | SJS 1–NYI 2 | Miss |
| Wild at Red Wings Sun, Mar 8 | DET 56.3% · MIN 43.7% | DET 3–MIN 2 | Hit |
| Devils at Blackhawks Sun, Mar 8 | CHI 56.3% · NJD 43.7% | CHI 5–NJD 4 | Hit |
| Flames at Islanders Sun, Mar 8 | NYI 60.6% · CGY 39.4% | NYI 8–CGY 7 | Hit |
| Flyers at Senators Sun, Mar 8 | OTT 56.3% · PHI 43.7% | OTT 4–PHI 3 | Hit |
| Penguins at Devils Sun, Mar 8 | NJD 56.3% · PIT 43.7% | NJD 0–PIT 3 | Miss |
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