Montreal Canadiens at Los Angeles Kings
Los Angeles Kings 59% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Kings:
- Home Field Advantage. Montreal Canadiens are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Recent Form. Montreal Canadiens (33-18) in better form than Toronto Maple Leafs (27-25)
- Offensive Efficiency. Montreal Canadiens offense (3.5 PPG) outpaces Toronto Maple Leafs (3.2 PPG)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: LAK 55% (−4)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: LAK 57% (−2)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: LAK 57% (−2)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: LAK 57% (−2)
Win probability movement
LAK home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Canadiens defeated the Kings 4-3.
Our model predicted the Kings would win with 59% confidence, but the Canadiens won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Kings and was a contributing factor: Montreal Canadiens are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Recent Form favored the Kings and was a contributing factor: Montreal Canadiens (33-18) in better form than Toronto Maple Leafs (27-25)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Kings and was a contributing factor: Montreal Canadiens offense (3.5 PPG) outpaces Toronto Maple Leafs (3.2 PPG)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Canadiens won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Los Angeles Kings
- Recent FormFavors Los Angeles Kings
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Los Angeles Kings
- Defensive EfficiencyNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Canadiens
Kings
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Kings has a 59% win probability, while Canadiens has a 41% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles, CA.