New York Islanders at Los Angeles Kings
Los Angeles Kings 54% to win. The biggest signal favoring Kings:
- Home Field Advantage. Montreal Canadiens are 0-0 at home this season
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: LAK 50% (−4)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: LAK 55% (+1)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: LAK 55% (+1)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: LAK 53% (−1)
Win probability movement
LAK home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Kings defeated the Islanders 5-3.
Our model predicted the Kings would win with 54% confidence -- and they delivered. A close call, but the model's slight lean proved correct.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Kings and was a notable factor: Montreal Canadiens are 0-0 at home this season
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Islanders and was a contributing factor: Carolina Hurricanes defense (2.8 Opp PPG) better than Montreal Canadiens (3.3 Opp PPG)
- Recent Form favored the Islanders and was a contributing factor: Carolina Hurricanes (38-16) in better form than Montreal Canadiens (33-18)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Kings won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Los Angeles Kings
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors New York Islanders
- Recent FormFavors New York Islanders
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Islanders
Kings
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Kings has a 54% win probability, while Islanders has a 46% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
Venue information is not yet available for this game.