Montreal Canadiens at Anaheim Ducks
Anaheim Ducks 63% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Ducks:
- Home Field Advantage. Dallas Stars are 0-0 at home this season
- Defensive Efficiency. Dallas Stars defense (2.7 Opp PPG) better than Toronto Maple Leafs (3.4 Opp PPG)
- Recent Form. Dallas Stars (38-14) in better form than Toronto Maple Leafs (27-24)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: ANA 57% (−6)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: ANA 58% (−5)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: ANA 59% (−4)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: ANA 60% (−3)
Win probability movement
ANA home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Ducks defeated the Canadiens 6-5.
Our model predicted the Ducks would win with 63% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Ducks and was a notable factor: Dallas Stars are 0-0 at home this season
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Ducks and was a contributing factor: Dallas Stars defense (2.7 Opp PPG) better than Toronto Maple Leafs (3.4 Opp PPG)
- Recent Form favored the Ducks and was a contributing factor: Dallas Stars (38-14) in better form than Toronto Maple Leafs (27-24)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Ducks won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Anaheim Ducks
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Anaheim Ducks
- Recent FormFavors Anaheim Ducks
- Offensive EfficiencyNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Canadiens
Ducks
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Ducks has a 63% win probability, while Canadiens has a 37% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Honda Center in Anaheim, CA.