Toronto Maple Leafs at New Jersey Devils
Toronto Maple Leafs 54% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Maple Leafs:
- Offensive Efficiency. Colorado Avalanche offense (3.8 PPG) outpaces New Jersey Devils (2.5 PPG)
- Recent Form. Colorado Avalanche (41-10) in better form than New Jersey Devils (30-29)
- Defensive Efficiency. Colorado Avalanche defense (2.4 Opp PPG) better than New Jersey Devils (3.0 Opp PPG)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: TOR 49% (−5)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: TOR 56% (+2)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: TOR 50% (−4)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: TOR 51% (−3)
Make Your Prediction
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Devils defeated the Maple Leafs 4-3.
Our model predicted the Maple Leafs would win with 54% confidence, but the Devils won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Maple Leafs and was a contributing factor: Colorado Avalanche offense (3.8 PPG) outpaces New Jersey Devils (2.5 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Devils and was a notable factor: New Jersey Devils are 0-0 at home this season
- Recent Form favored the Maple Leafs and was a contributing factor: Colorado Avalanche (41-10) in better form than New Jersey Devils (30-29)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Devils won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Toronto Maple Leafs
- Home Field AdvantageFavors New Jersey Devils
- Recent FormFavors Toronto Maple Leafs
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Toronto Maple Leafs
- Rest DaysNeutral
- InjuriesNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Maple Leafs
Devils
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Devils has a 46% win probability, while Maple Leafs has a 54% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Prudential Center in Newark, NJ.