Tampa Bay Lightning at Winnipeg Jets
Winnipeg Jets 57% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Jets:
- Home Field Advantage. San Jose Sharks are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Offensive Efficiency. San Jose Sharks offense (3.1 PPG) outpaces Calgary Flames (2.5 PPG)
- Recent Form. San Jose Sharks (30-25) in better form than Calgary Flames (24-29)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: WPG 53% (−4)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: WPG 54% (−3)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: WPG 58% (+1)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: WPG 55% (−2)
Win probability movement
WPG home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Jets defeated the Lightning 4-1.
Our model predicted the Jets would win with 57% confidence -- and they delivered. Even with modest confidence, the model got this one right.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Jets and was a contributing factor: San Jose Sharks are 0-0 at home this season (divisional game, reduced advantage)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Jets and was a contributing factor: San Jose Sharks offense (3.1 PPG) outpaces Calgary Flames (2.5 PPG)
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Lightning and was a contributing factor: Calgary Flames defense (3.0 Opp PPG) better than San Jose Sharks (3.5 Opp PPG)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Jets won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Winnipeg Jets
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Winnipeg Jets
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Tampa Bay Lightning
- Recent FormFavors Winnipeg Jets
- InjuriesNeutral
- Turnover DifferentialNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Lightning
Jets
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Jets has a 57% win probability, while Lightning has a 43% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
Venue information is not yet available for this game.