Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Islanders
Toronto Maple Leafs 53% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Maple Leafs:
- Defensive Efficiency. Colorado Avalanche defense (2.4 Opp PPG) better than Florida Panthers (3.3 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency. Colorado Avalanche offense (3.8 PPG) outpaces Florida Panthers (3.0 PPG)
- Recent Form. Colorado Avalanche (41-10) in better form than Florida Panthers (30-28)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the home-field edge were neutral: TOR 56% (+3)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: TOR 49% (−4)
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: TOR 50% (−3)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: TOR 50% (−3)
Win probability movement
NYI home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Islanders defeated the Maple Leafs 6-2.
Our model predicted the Maple Leafs would win with 53% confidence, but the Islanders won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Home Field Advantage favored the Islanders and was a notable factor: Florida Panthers are 0-0 at home this season
- Defensive Efficiency favored the Maple Leafs and was a contributing factor: Colorado Avalanche defense (2.4 Opp PPG) better than Florida Panthers (3.3 Opp PPG)
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Maple Leafs and was a contributing factor: Colorado Avalanche offense (3.8 PPG) outpaces Florida Panthers (3.0 PPG)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Islanders won by a solid margin
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Home Field AdvantageFavors New York Islanders
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Toronto Maple Leafs
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Toronto Maple Leafs
- Recent FormFavors Toronto Maple Leafs
- InjuriesNeutral
- Rest DaysNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Maple Leafs
Islanders
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Islanders has a 47% win probability, while Maple Leafs has a 53% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Scotiabank Saddledome in Calgary, AB.