Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs
Toronto Maple Leafs 67% to win. The top 3 signals favoring Maple Leafs:
- Offensive Efficiency. Colorado Avalanche offense (3.8 PPG) outpaces Calgary Flames (2.4 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage. Colorado Avalanche are 0-0 at home this season
- Recent Form. Colorado Avalanche (41-10) in better form than Calgary Flames (24-30)
What would change the call
Win probability as of kickoff if a leading factor were even
- If the offensive efficiency edge were neutral: TOR 60% (−7)
- If the home-field edge were neutral: TOR 61% (−6)
- If the recent-form edge were neutral: TOR 62% (−5)
- If the defensive efficiency edge were neutral: TOR 63% (−4)
Win probability movement
TOR home win probability as the model updated before the game
Labels mark updates of 5 points or more, named by the factor that moved most.
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head snapshot based on our model inputs
Post-Game Analysis
How our model performed
The Lightning defeated the Maple Leafs 5-2.
Our model predicted the Maple Leafs would win with 67% confidence, but the Lightning won against the model's expectation. Results like this help us refine the model.
Looking at the factors our model weighed:
- Offensive Efficiency favored the Maple Leafs and was a contributing factor: Colorado Avalanche offense (3.8 PPG) outpaces Calgary Flames (2.4 PPG)
- Home Field Advantage favored the Maple Leafs and was a notable factor: Colorado Avalanche are 0-0 at home this season
- Recent Form favored the Maple Leafs and was a contributing factor: Colorado Avalanche (41-10) in better form than Calgary Flames (24-30)
This analysis was generated from our model's pre-game assessment compared against the actual result. Factor accuracy helps improve future predictions.
Lightning won in a close game
Key Factors
What's driving the win probability for this game
- Offensive EfficiencyFavors Toronto Maple Leafs
- Home Field AdvantageFavors Toronto Maple Leafs
- Recent FormFavors Toronto Maple Leafs
- Defensive EfficiencyFavors Toronto Maple Leafs
- Rest DaysNeutral
- Head to HeadNeutral
What's Driving This Game
Each factor's contribution to the final win probability
Premium feature: factor breakdown
Start 14-day free trial →Understanding the win probability calculation
4 factors
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor
1 factor not shown (insufficient data)
Key Players
Lightning
Maple Leafs
Learn About Our Analysis
Learn about the factors behind our predictions
Frequently Asked Questions
Maple Leafs has a 67% win probability, while Lightning has a 33% win probability based on our analysis.
Our model considers offensive and defensive efficiency, rest days, injury impact, and historical performance.
This game is being played at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, ON.